Five games wiseguys like in Week 15

December 15, 2021 06:31 PM
appelbaum

The public had its best showing of the season in Week 14, much to the chagrin of sportsbooks and contrarian bettors. Favorites went 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS, while Overs went 10-4.

Last week’s results might make for a buy-low Week 15 for dogs and Unders, as sportsbooks will likely shade lines further toward favorites and Overs.

With that in mind, here are five games wise guys are targeting in Week 15.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 52) at Los Angeles Chargers

This Thursday night showdown features the top two teams in the AFC West. The Chiefs (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) have won six straight games and just crushed the Raiders 48-9, easily covering as 10-point home favorites. The Chargers (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, beating the Giants 37-21 last week and covering as 9-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite, but the public is hammering the red-hot Chiefs and drove the favorites up to -4 early in the week. We've seen a lot of buyback on the Chargers, dropping the line back to 3.5 and hinting at a drop back to 3 at some shops. Conference dogs of + 7 or less are 66-34 ATS (66 percent) this season. Divisional dogs are 33-27 ATS (55 percent) and prime-time dogs are 25-17 ATS (60 percent). The Chargers upset the Chiefs 30-24 in Week 3 as 7-point road dogs.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 45.5)

This prime-time Saturday night matchup features two playoff contenders coming off bye weeks. The Patriots (9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS) have won seven straight and just took down the Bills 14-10, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. The Colts (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) are 6-2 over their last eight games and just waxed the Texans 31-10, easily covering as 10-point road favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick-’em, and some shops even opened New England as a short 2-point road favorite, but we've seen this line flip to Colts -2. The public is happy to grab the points with the streaking Patriots, so this signals sharp dog-to-favorite reverse line movement on the Colts. At this point, the Patriots are in a prime teaser spot (+ 2 to + 8), which goes through multiple key numbers. Short road dogs + 3 or less are 23-10 ATS (70 percent) this season. We’ve also seen some Over money show up, raising the total from 44 to 45.5. The Colts are 8-5 to the Over this season; the Patriots are 7-6 to the Under.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-5.5, 41.5)

This Saturday afternoon matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Raiders (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) have lost two straight games and are just 1-5 over their last six. Vegas just got demolished by the Chiefs 48-9, failing to cover as a 9-point road dog. The Browns (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS) are 3-2 over their last five games and just beat the Ravens 24-22, although Cleveland failed to cover as a 3-point home favorite. This line opened with the Browns listed as 6-point home favorites. The public is off the Raiders bandwagon and happy to back Cleveland at home. However, we’ve seen this line fall from 6 to 5.5, signaling some respected money buying low on the Raiders. Road dogs of + 6 or less are 45-23 ATS (66 percent) this season. Road teams on Saturdays are 29-15 ATS (66 percent) over the last decade. Craig Wrolstad, the lead referee, has historically benefited road teams (67-49 ATS, 58 percent).

Tennessee Titans (-2, 41.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both of these AFC teams have struggled of late and are looking to get back on track. The Titans (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) snapped a two-game skid with a 20-0 win over the Jaguars last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. The Steelers (6-6-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) are 1-3 over their last four games. Pittsburgh just fell to Minnesota 36-28, failing to cover as a 3.5-point road dog. This line opened with the Titans listed as 2.5-point road favorites. Respected money has grabbed the points with the home dogs, dropping the line from 2.5 to 2. Some shops are even inching down to 1.5. Pittsburgh has a rest advantage, as they last played on Thursday night. Conference dogs of + 7 or less are 66-34 ATS (66 percent). Mike Tomlin is 43-22 ATS (66 percent) in his career as a dog. The Steelers are in a valuable teaser spot (+ 2 to + 8), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11, 46.5)

This Sunday night showdown features a pair of NFC South rivals coming off wins. The Saints (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) just crushed the Jets 30-9, easily covering as 4.5-point road favorites. The win snapped a five-game losing streak. The Bucs (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won four straight and just edged the Bills 33-27, covering in overtime as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as an 11.5-point home favorite. Sharps have grabbed the points with the Saints, dropping the line to 11 or even 10.5 at some shops. Road divisional dogs are 21-16 ATS (57 percent) this season. Conference dogs are 80-56 ATS (59 percent) and prime-time dogs are 25-17 ATS (60 percent). Dogs off a blowout win of at least 20 points are 18-12 ATS (60 percent) over the last two seasons. The Saints beat the Bucs 36-27 in Week 8.

 

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