NFL chalk favorites and Overs reigned supreme to start December, much to the chagrin of sportsbooks, which suffered their worst two-week stretch of the season. But in Week 15 we saw regression finally hit as dogs went 6-4 ATS on Sunday and Unders went 7-3. Unders are now 123-97 (56 percent) on the season. With COVID-19 causing major headaches and volatile line moves, value-driven bettors may look to buy low on inflated dogs and also lean on teasers the rest of the way.
With that in mind, here are five games wise guys are targeting in Week 16.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (PICK-’EM, 49.5)
These playoff hopefuls are trending in opposite directions. The Colts (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) are 7-2 over their last nine games and just beat the Patriots 27-17, covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) once had the NFL's best record but have since lost two straight and just fell 30-12 to the lowly Lions, losing outright as 13-point road favorites. This early lookahead line was Cardinals -4. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. As soon as this number dropped, wise guys pounced on the red-hot Colts plus the points, dropping the line down Arizona -1 or even a pick-'em. Short road dogs + 3 or less are 24-12 ATS (67 percent) this season. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (67-50 ATS, 57 percent). The Colts also have a rest advantage, having played on Saturday while the Cardinals played Sunday.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-9.5, 45.5) AT HOUSTON TEXANS
The Chargers (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) just fell to the Chiefs 34-28, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS) just took down the Jags 30-16, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles as an 11-point road favorite. The public is happy to back Justin Herbert and lay the points against the lowly Texans. However, we've seen this line tumble from Chargers -11 to -9.5. This was a result of a plethora of positive COVID-19 tests for Los Angeles. Conference dogs are 87-62 ATS (58 percent) this season. Home dogs of 7 points or more in December are roughly 55 percent ATS over the past decade. The Texans are one of your top contrarian plays of the week as well, with more than 75 percent of tickets backing the Chargers.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT NEW YORK JETS (-2.5, 41.5)