Finding the value in Friday's feature

By Ron Flatter  (Saratoga Play of the Day) 

July 27, 2017 06:01 AM

What in the world happened to Hemsworth? The future certainly looked bright last fall at Aqueduct, where he won the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes for Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin Racing. Tom Albertrani, who also trained his sire Bernardini to become the 2006 horse of the year, took Hemsworth to Florida for the winter. That is when things really went south. Hemsworth did not take well to the track at Gulfstream Park, where he was eased in a stakes race. Then he returned to New York in the spring and failed as the favorite in a claiming race at Belmont Park. Albertrani believes an illness contributed to the problems. Now Hemsworth (12-1) is a long shot despite being the only stakes winner racing in the $100,000 Curlin Stakes, the nine-furlong feature for 3-year-olds Friday at Saratoga. Morning-line favorite Outplay (5-2) will try to lead from gate to wire for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velázquez, but the question is whether he can come back from a seven-week break and get the extra distance. With Javier Castellano up for Chad Brown, You’re To Blame (3-1) figures to sit off the pace and pounce late as he did when he beat Outplay for second in last month’s Easy Goer. While You’re To Blame may be the safe play across the board, the value play is with Hemsworth.

Play of the Day: Hemsworth for the value pick.

Ron Flatter's Saratoga Play of the Day is sponsored by NYRA Bets. Get details on a $200 new membership sign-up bonus. (Void where prohibited.)

Friday's Saratoga stakes race in handicap order from e-ponies.com

Screen_Shot_2017-07-27_at_1.52.04_PM

See more at e-ponies.com.

 

back to news

QuickPicks_300x250_080920_NFLkickoff

Headlines

View All
  • Wednesday Line Moves for UFC Fight Island 8

    Wednesday Line Moves for UFC Fight Island 8

    Happy Wednesday! Today we have a loaded betting menu featuring 30-plus  college basketball games, 10 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown...
  • Magny should shine in Fight Island 8

    Magny should shine in Fight Island 8

    Wednesday’s UFC event begins at 6 a.m. Pacific Time, so the theme might as well be Beatdowns and Bagels. Max Holloway dominated Calvin Kattar...
  • Watch bombers in Palm Springs event

    Watch bombers in Palm Springs event

    Kevin Na shot 61-65 on the weekend to win the Sony Open in Hawaii at as high as 80-1 odds. Na (40-1) will attempt to win in back-to-back weeks this week...
  • Schedule critical in CBB futures bets

    Schedule critical in CBB futures bets

    Last week we discussed the importance of taking a positive approach to college basketball futures betting. That is, focus on playing plus numbers instead...
  • First impressions as hockey returns

    First impressions as hockey returns

    It’s great to have hockey back, but bettors must temper their expectations and trust their preseason projections. Therefore, this is a great time...
  • Tuley's Takes on Championship Sunday

    Tuley's Takes on Championship Sunday

    The NFL’s divisional playoff round was a mixed bag for us here at the Tuley’s Takes home office, though I spent Saturday at Circa with VSiN...
  • Injuries dog Chiefs, but Packers on roll

    Injuries dog Chiefs, but Packers on roll

    And then there were four. We’re looking forward to what is maybe the single best day on the NFL calendar: Championship Sunday. The matchups are...
  • Championship Sunday: Sifting recent trends

    Championship Sunday: Sifting recent trends

    For as different as this NFL season has been due to the impact of COVID-19, the first two weeks of the playoffs have generally followed the trends of...
  • How to gain edge betting CBB rematches

    How to gain edge betting CBB rematches

    (To view the charts with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) In a typical college basketball season, and to a lesser degree this season,...
  • Mahomes mystery puts oddsmakers in bind

    Mahomes mystery puts oddsmakers in bind

    It’s generally easy for oddsmakers to post lines on most NFL games. The numbers are typically airtight, unlike in college football. A quarterback...
  • Championship Sunday capsules

    Championship Sunday capsules

    NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Buccaneers at Packers (3:05 p.m. ET Sunday) The Packers opened as consensus four-point home favorites against the...
  • With Pacers surging, Clippers on long haul

    With Pacers surging, Clippers on long haul

    Another week gone, and bettors have yet to see any NBA team separate itself from the pack. The Los Angeles Lakers seem like the surest thing on the board,...

Google Play
App Store
Close