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Finding mid-majors to take to the bank

(To see the chart accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly)

The college basketball season is just a couple of weeks old, so it’s a good time to start plotting for the rest of the season, based on early returns. I like to canvass the mid-major conferences to find potential money makers. There’s usually a handful of non-power conference teams that you can ride with all season. 

Just look at last season, when teams such as Dayton, East Tennessee State and San Diego State came through for bettors time after time. Those three teams combined to produce + 48.25 units of moneyline profit and an ATS mark of 54-37-2. The return on investment on that moneyline wagering was a staggering 51.9% on those teams.

Obviously had any reasonable bettors known the type of seasons those teams were going to produce, they would have backed them consistently, right? Well, some people did know, or at least they had an inkling that these were programs ready to excel in 2019-20. How? Well, those three and a few others had some shared characteristics of past mid-major teams that delivered great returns at the betting window.

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