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Favorites and Overs Dominating NBA playoffs, plus Tuesday NBA Sharp Report

June 1, 2021 12:47 AM

NBA playoff favorites went 1-1 ATS on Monday. Overs went a perfect 2-0. This has been a constant theme this postseason as Chalk has now gone 24-14 ATS (63%) overall. The best spot for favorites is isolating short favorites -5 or less. These teams have gone a remarkable 16-5 ATS (76%). Overs are now 21-16-1 (57%). The best spot for overs has been targeting high totals. When the total is 220 or more, the over is 16-7 (70%) this postseason.

Now we turn our attention to Tuesday, where bettors have a loaded betting menu to choose from, including 15 MLB games, 3 NBA playoff games and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon from noon-2 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is going for tonight's three NBA playoff games.

7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets

This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference first round. The Nets lead the series 3-1 and have a chance to eliminate the Celtics and advance to the second round with a victory tonight. This line opened with the Nets listed as a 12-point home favorite. The Nets just crushed Boston 141-126 in Game 4, covering as 8.5-point road favorites. Now the Nets go back home and the Celtics will be without Kemba Walker, who is expected to miss this game with a knee injury. The public sees a blowout win and easy cover with the Nets, and overwhelming support has pushed the Nets from -12 to -12.5 tonight. The Celtics are your top contrarian play of the night as they are only receiving roughly one-quarter of bets. Favorites are 24-14 ATS (63%) this playoffs. The total hasn't moved off the opener of 231.5. When the total is 220 or more, the over is 16-7 (70%) this postseason. The over is 3-1 this series.

9 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

This is Game 5 of the Western Conference first round. The series is tied 2-2. The Blazers are coming off a 115-95 win in Game 4, covering as 4.5-point favorites to even the series. Now it shifts back to Denver. This Game 5 opened with the Nuggets listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. This line hasn't budged off the opener, but some books have trended up to -2 at times. This signals some liability on the Nuggets to punch back at home. Shorts favorites -5 or less are 16-5 ATS (76%) this postseason. The Nuggets also have value as a home favorite off a blowout loss of 10-point or more (54% ATS last decade). The total hasn't moved off the opener of 226. The over is 3-1 this series. With the series tied 2-2, the Blazers are -140 favorites to advance to the next round. The Nuggets are + 115 dogs to win the series.

10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns

This is Game 5 of the Western Conference first round. The series is tied 2-2. After falling down 2-1, the Suns roared back with a 100-92 win in Game 4, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs and evening the series. In tonight's pivotal Game 5, the Suns opened as 4-point home favorites. The public is split and doesn't know which way to go. But pros are leaning Suns, as we've seen this line jump from Phoenix -4 to -5. One big reason for the move is Lakers star Anthony Davis, who is expected to miss the game with a groin strain. This line jumped to 5.5 and got hit with some Lakers + 5.5 buyback, but other than that all movement has been toward Phoenix. The Suns have value as a short favorite -5 or less (16-5 ATS, 76% this postseason). Respected money has also hit this under, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the total downward from 209 to 207. The under is 3-1 this series. With the series tied 2-2, the Suns are -175 favorites to advance. The Lakers are + 145 dogs to win the series.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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