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Fave/over results on Sunday/Monday night cut into book's NFL Week 10 profits

Dave Tuley senior reporter

November 13, 2017 11:02 PM

LAS VEGAS – Win some, lose some. NFL Week 10 was like that for most bettors and sports books with a mixed bag of results.

As Golden Nugget race & sports book director Tony Miller said when he was our guest on “The Starting Lineup” show on VSiN (7-8 p.m. ET/4-5 p.m. Sunday on SiriusXM 204 and our website and app), it’s usually a good day for the books when the favorites/underdogs and over/unders are around .500, though he also said there was a lot of liability on the Patriots in parlays and teasers.

The Patriots came through for those bettors with a 41-16 rout of the Broncos on Sunday Night Football to eat into the books’ profits and get a lot of bettors back toward break-even (individual results may vary). The fave/over result also scored for bettors on Monday night as the Panthers blew out the Dolphins 45-21 to cover as 8-point home favorites with the game flying over the total of 38.5.

NFL Week 10 started with the Seahawks closing as consensus 6-point favorites here in Vegas (note: I grade all my betting results using my Consensus Closing Lines that I post in my VFV Forums). The Seahawks were leading 22-10 late and looked like they would cover, but Andre Ellington’s 1-yard TD run with 20 seconds to play got Arizona plus-6.5 bettors in the back door. Early bettors who had tickets with Seattle -5.5 looked like they were going to suffer a bad beat until Phil Dawson’s PAT was blocked to keep the final score at 22-16. Bettors at plus- or minus-6 got refunds (back to our break-even theme).

Sunday’s early games saw a 4-4 ATS split (note: the Buccaneers closed as 1-point home faves over the Jets after being underdogs all week on the betting boards and in probably all pools/contests and came through for those bettors with their 15-10 win). The other covering faves were the Vikings in their 38-30 win at Washington as 1-point road faves, the Saints in their 47-10 rout in Buffalo as 2.5-point road faves and the Lions in their 38-24 win over the Browns as 10-point home faves.

The Packers pulled the only outright upset in the early games with their 23-16 win at Chicago as 5-point road dogs while the Colts, Chargers and Bengals covered in their losses to the Steelers, Jaguars and Titans, respectively.

So, Week 10 faves/dogs were 4-4-1 ATS heading into the afternoon games (1:05 p.m. and 1:25 p.m. PT kickoffs in Vegas) while overs were 5-4.

Favorites went 2-1 SU & ATS in the afternoon games with the Rams routing the Texans 33-7 after closing -13, the biggest spread of the week, and the Falcons whipping the Cowboys 27-7 as 3.5-point home faves. Both those games stayed under their betting totals. The 49ers pulled off the afternoon’s sole upset with a 31-21 win over the Giants as 3-point home dogs and went over the total of 41.5.
So, that dropped over/unders to 6-6 (back to the break-even theme) while faves moved ahead 6-5-1 ATS.

After the dual fave/over results on Sunday and Monday night, favorites ended the week at 7-5-1 ATS while overs finished 8-6. That moved back fave/dog and over/under results back toward break-even for the season and underdogs have seen their lead shrink down to 70-68-7 ATS (50.7% after discarding the pushes) on the year while over/unders are back to .500 at 72-72-2.



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