Betting the NFL is a 24-7 endeavor. You can't just wake up on Sunday morning and expect to pick winners. The key is doing your research throughout the week and monitoring line movement as soon as lines open. By tracking the progression of a line, along with all the ups and downs throughout the week, you can pick up subtleties in terms of where the liability lies and what numbers the books are willing and unwilling to go to. Without further ado, let's discuss where early sharp action is flowing for Week 10.
For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m. ET to offer an action update for tonight's college football games. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
This NFC South divisional matchup features a pair of teams looking to avenge tough Week 9 losses. The Bucs (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) are coming off an embarrassing 38-3 blowout loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football, losing straight up as 3-point home favorites. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Panthers (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) battled hard in Kansas City last week, losing 33-31 to the Chiefs but covering as 10-point road dogs. It marked the fourth straight loss for Carolina. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 6-point road favorite. We've seen sharps get down hard on the Panthers, driving this line down from Carolina + 6 to + 4.5. Divisional dogs like Carolina are 28-16 ATS (64%) this season. Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS (81%) as a dog in his career, including 5-2 ATS this season. We've also seen some smart money hit this over, pushing it up from 48.5 to 50.5.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
These non-conference foes are trending in completely opposite directions. The Jaguars (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) have lost seven straight after shocking the Colts on opening day. However, Jacksonville showed some life with rookie Jake Luton under center, falling to Houston 27-25 but covering as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) sit comfortably atop the NFC North and just crushed the 49ers 34-17 on Thursday Night Football, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a hefty 14-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout and is thinking about laying the points. However, we've seen this line fall slightly from Green Bay -14 to -13.5. This signals some respected money hitting the Jags at the key number of + 14, causing a half-point adjustment in their favor. Green Bay has a rest advantage as they last played on Thursday compared to the Jags playing on Sunday. We've also seen pro money hammer this under, dropping the total from 53 to 52. Weather could be an issue in this one. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Both of these NFC West rivals have struggled in recent weeks. Both are 1-2 in their last three games and looking to rebound from tough road losses. The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) lost to the Bills in a shootout last week, falling 44-34 and losing outright as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just got humbled in South Beach, falling to the Dolphins 28-17 and losing straight up as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 2-point home favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the Seahawks as a short road dog, as we've seen this line tumble down from Seattle + 2 to + 1.5. The Seahawks have value as a divisional dog (29-16 ATS, 64% this season) and a short road + 6 or less (35-15 ATS, 70%), Russell Wilson in 27-13 ATS (68%) as a dog in his career. The Rams will have a rest and game-plan advantage in this one as they are coming off a bye. The total is 55.5. The Seahawks have been profitable to the over this season (6-2) while the Rams have been a big under team (6-2).
More Week 10 Early Moves
Colts + 2.5 to + 2 at Titans
Browns -2.5 to -3 vs Texans
Broncos-Raiders Over 50.5 to 52
Bills-Cardinals Over 54 to 56
Chargers-Dolphins Under 49 to 48
49ers-Saints Under 51 to 50
Patriots-Ravens Over 41.5 to 43.5