Early Sweet 16 Sharp Report


The opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament has come and gone, with countless brackets being busted along the way. We are now down to the Sweet 16. Here are the updated odds to cut down the nets at BetMGM.

Gonzaga +230

Kansas +450

Arizona +500

Purdue +850

Houston +900

Duke +1100

Villanova +1400

Texas Tech +1600

UCLA +1800

Michigan, North Carolina +3000

Arkansas, Miami +5000

Providence +6600

Iowa State +8000

Now we turn our attention to Monday, where a new week of betting begins with 6 CBI and Basketball Classic games, 9 NBA games and 4 NHL games. 

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:40 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's take a look at the early action for the Sweet 16, which takes place Thursday and Friday. 
Texas Tech vs Duke
This Sweet 16 matchup takes place in West Region. Texas Tech (27-9) is the 3-seed. The Red Raiders crushed 14-seed Montana State 97-62 in the First Round and then took down 11-seed Notre Dame 59-53 in the Second Round. Meanwhile, Duke (30-6) is the 2-seed. The Blue Devils dismissed 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61 and then beat 7-seed Michigan State 85-76. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. The public is riding Duke in Coach K's final hurrah. However, we've seen this line shoot up to Texas Tech -1, signaling wisely action backing the Red Raiders. Ken Pom has Texas Tech winning by one point (69-68). He has Texas Tech ranked 6th and Duke 9th. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one, as the total has been bet down from 137.5 to 136.5. 
North Carolina vs UCLA
This is the East Region Sweet 16 showdown. North Carolina (26-9) is the 8-seed. The Tar Heels beat 9-seed Marquette 95-63 in the Madness opener and then upset 1-seed Baylor 93-86 in overtime. On the other hand, UCLA (27-7) is the 4-seed. The Bruins edged 13-seed Akron 57-53 and then beat 5-seed Saint Mary's 72-56. This line opened with UCLA listed as a 2.5-point favorite. Early money has jumped on North Carolina getting the hook, dropping the line down from 2.5 to 2. March Madness teams with a line move in their favor are 26-16 ATS (62%). Ken Pom has UCLA winning by four points (74-70), which means the betting market is more bullish on North Carolina than the advanced analytics. Pros have also hit this over, driving the total up from 142 to 142.5. 
Miami Florida vs Iowa State
This Sweet 16 clash takes place in the Midwest Region. Miami (25-10) is the 10-seed. The Hurricanes upset 7-seed USC 68-66 and then took down 2-seed Auburn 79-61. Similarly, Iowa State (22-12) is the 11-seed and has beaten 6-seed LSU 59-54 and 3-seed Wisconsin 54-59. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a short 1-point favorite. Pro bettors have hammered Miami, flipping the Hurricanes from a 1-point dog to a 1.5-point favorite. Ken Pom has Iowa State winning by one point (68-67), which goes against the early market movement. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 134.5 to 133.5. 
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