Early Super Bowl LVI Sharp Report


Today, bettors have a loaded Tuesday slate to choose from including 6 NBA games, 12 NHL games and a full College Basketball card. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where early money is leaning for Super Bowl LVI...

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Super Bowl will be played at SoFI Stadium, home of the Rams, although Los Angeles is ironically designated as the "road" team for this game. The Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 win over the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, failing to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. Previously in the postseason, the Rams dominated the Cardinals in the Wild Card round 34-11, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites and then took down the Bucs 30-27 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS) are coming off a pair of thrilling postseason upsets, shocking the Chiefs 27-24 as 7.5-point dogs in the AFC Championship game and beating the Titans 19-16 in the Divisional round as 4-point road dogs. In the Wild Card round, Cincinnati edged Vegas 26-19, covering as 6-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Early money has laid the points with the Rams, driving the line up to 4 or even 4.5 at some shops. At BetMGM, the Rams are receiving 58% of bets and 67% of money. Super Bowl teams with line movement in their favor are 11-5 ATS (69%) since 2004. At this point, the Bengals offer value as a contrarian dog with an inflated line in the most heavily bet game of the year. With Super Bowl ticket counts skyrocketing, the public lean toward Los Angeles creates buy-low value to back the unpopular dog.

Joe Burrow is 12-7 ATS (63%) in his career as a dog. The Bengals are 6-3 ATS as a dog this season, including 5-0 ATS when getting three points or more. Super Bowl dogs are 9-5 ATS since 2008. If they're getting 3-points or more, they improve to 8-2 ATS. The Bengals are also in an ideal teaser spot (+ 4.5 to + 10.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 

We've also seen wiseguys target the under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48.5. This signaled a classic reverse line move to the under as the total fell despite a majority of early bets (53%) taking the over. Super Bowl unders are 3-0 the past three seasons. Unders are 8-4 so far this postseason. When the total falls, the under is 57% over the past decade in the playoffs. The Bengals are 3-0 to the under this postseason. The Rams are 2-1 to the under. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo and plays per game. 

Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM

Matthew Stafford + 115

Joe Burrow + 210

Cooper Kupp + 600

Ja'Marr Chase, Aaron Donald + 1600

Joe Miscon, OBJ + 2500

Cam Akers + 3000

Tee Higgins, Von Miller + 5000

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Wes Reynolds: Colts +6 vs. Chiefs

Matt Youmans: Wisconsin +18 vs Ohio State



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