Early smart money on college football Week 14

November 26, 2019 11:51 PM

Northern Illinois upset Western Michigan 17-14 last night, handing contrarian bettors and sportsbooks a big win. Only one-out-of-four tickets were on NIU, who opened at plus 7 and closed at plus 10. The bigger story was the under. As we detailed in Tuesday's newsletter, the wind was howling at 15 plus MPH. The under 51.5 cashed without a sweat. 

College Football windy unders 10 MPH or more are now 88-76 (53.7%) this season and 54.1% since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports. If the wind blows 15 MPH or more the under is 57.6% since 2005. With the season winding down and bad weather ramping up, this under trend should be on the minds of all total bettors the rest of the way. 

Here are the top windy unders to look out for this week

23 MPH: Kansas State-Iowa State Under 46.5

20 MPH: Army at Hawaii Under 56

18 MPH: Kansas-Baylor Under 51.5

16 MPH: Illinois-Northwestern Under 43.5

16 MPH: Oklahoma State-Oklahoma Under 69.5

15 MPH: North Texas-UAB Under 50.5

15 MPH: Western Kentucky-MTSU Under 49

15 MPH: Air Force-Wyoming Under 43

Today we have a stacked slate with 50 plus college basketball games, 14 NBA games and 13 NHL games. For an updated betting breakdown of all of Wednesday's action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Until then, let's examine where early smart money is falling for NCAAF Week 14. 

Friday 12 p.m. ET: Texas Tech (4-7) at Texas (6-5)

Both of these teams are riding two-game losing streaks. Texas Tech just lost to Kansas State 30-27 as a 1-point dog while Texas just fell to Baylor 24-10 as a 4-point dog. This Big 12 battle for Lone Star bragging rights opened with Texas listed as a 9-point home favorite. The public says these teams are relatively equal and that's way too many points to lay. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Texas Tech, this line has moved to Texas -10. Wiseguys are fading the trendy dog and got down on the Longhorns at -9 and -9.5. We've also seen sharp money hit the under. The forecast calls for 10-12 MPH winds and the total has fallen from 65 to 63.5. 

Friday 4:15 p.m. ET: West Virginia (4-7) at TCU (5-6)

The Mountaineers started the season 3-1 but have gone just 1-6 since, including last week's 20-13 loss to Oklahoma State as 6.5-point dogs. TCU also started 3-1 and has gone just 2-5 since, although the Horned Frogs hung tough against Oklahoma last week, losing 28-24 as 18.5-point dogs. This Big 12 conference showdown opened with TCU listed as a 12-point home favorite. Sharps and square are both backing the favorite, which has forced books to push the line up to -13.5. Both teams are 4-7 ATS and giving up roughly the same amount of points on defense (WVU 29.91 and TCU 27). The difference comes on offense where the Mountaineers are averaging just 20.64 PPG compared to the Horned Frogs 31.55 PPG. Sharps have also gotten down on the under. The total opened at 45.5 and has fallen to 44.5. The forecasts calls for 13-15 MPH winds. The over is 7-4 in TCU games but the under is 7-4 in WVU games. 

Saturday 12 p.m. ET: Ohio State (11-0, ranked 1st) at Michigan (9-2, 13th)

One of the greatest rivalries in sports renews on Saturday at the Big House. Ohio State just leapfrogged LSU to take over the #1 ranking in the country. The Buckeyes have outscored their opponents by an average of 49-10. Ohio State beat Penn State 28-17 last week but failed to cover as 20-point favorites. Michigan has won four-straight and is surging at the right time, most recently crushing Indiana 39-14 as 9.5-point favorites. In the most heavily bet game of the day, the line opened with Ohio State listed as a 9-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Buckeyes once again, with more than three-out-of-four bets laying the points. This heavily lopsided action pushed the line up to 9.5 or even 10, at which point sharps bought low on Michigan and dropped the number back down to 9 or even 8.5 at some shops. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp reverse line move or line freeze on Michigan. The total has fallen from 52 to 50. The forecasts calls for 12-15 MPH winds and possible rain. 

More sharp action

South Alabama plus 12.5 to plus 11 vs Arkansas State

Syracuse plus 5 to plus 4 vs Wake Forest

MTSU plus 9.5 to plus 8.5 at Western Kentucky

Tulane plus 5 to plus 3.5 at SMU

UAB plus 1.5 to -3 at North Texas

Notre Dame -14.5 to -16.5 at Stanford

Oregon -18 to -19.5 vs Oregon State 

Cal plus 2.5 to plus 1.5 at UCLA

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