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Early Sharp Action on NFL Week 4, plus NBA and MLB

September 30, 2020 12:43 AM

Week 3 of the NFL season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 4. Lines have only been out for a few days but we are already starting to see sharp action take hold. Let's discuss two games for this Sunday receiving early smart money, along with a pair of games tonight getting hit with recreational and pro support. 

For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America from 3-5 p.m. ET. 

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

The Cardinals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) were undefeated and looked unstoppable through two weeks. But then Arizona came back down to Earth in Week 3, falling to the Lions 26-23 at home as 5-point favorites. On the flip side, Carolina (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) started off with a pair of losses but rebounded in a big way in Week 3, upsetting the Chargers 21-16 as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a short 4-point road favorite. The public is pounding Kyler Murray and the Cards, yet we've seen this line fall slightly to 3.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros getting down on Carolina + 4 off a win. We've also seen a rash of over money but this total up from 51 to 52. 

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys

After a blowout loss to the Ravens (38-6) in the season opener, the Browns (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) have rebounded with a pair of wins over the Bengals (35-30) and most recently defeated Washington 34-20 as 7-point favorites last week. It's been a struggle thus far for the Cowboys (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), who could very well be winless if not for the epic comeback against the Falcons (40-39) in Week 2. Dallas just lost to the Seahawks last week 38-31, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Cowboys listed as 5-point home favorites. The public still believes in Dallas and doesn't think the Browns are for real. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with the home favorite, we've seen smart money hit Cleveland, dropping the line from + 5 to + 4.5. Some books have briefly touched 4. Essentially all liability has been on Cleveland and the points. This total opened at a super high 56 and has ticked down slightly to 55.5. Both teams are 2-1 to the over this season. 

Today 12 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

The Reds (31-29) finished the regular season on a hot streak, going 11-3 over their final 14 games. The Braves (35-25) won the NL East and finished with the 3rd-best record in the National League. In this afternoon's series opener, the Reds start ace Trevor Bauer (5-4, 1.73 ERA) while the Braves counter with lefty Max Fried (7-0, 2.25 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -135 home favorite and Cincinnati a + 125 road dog. Moneyline bets are split down the middle, yet we've seen this line fall away from the Braves (-135 to -125) and toward the Reds (+ 125 to + 115). This signals some respected money hitting Cincinnati as a plus-money road dog. The Reds are 7-11 as a dog this season and 15-15 on the road. The Braves are 29-14 as a favorite this season and 19-11 at home. Atlanta is a -139 favorite (58.2%) to win this series at BetMGM. The Reds are + 115. 

Tonight 9 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers

Welcome to Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Heat have rolled through the Pacers, Bucks and most recently the Celtics this postseason, while the Lakers have taken down the Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Both teams have compiled an overall postseason record of 12-3. This game opened with the Lakers listed as 5-point favorites. Despite a slight majority of bets laying the points with the Lakers, we've seen this line fall from Los Angeles -5 to -4.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement grabbing the Heat at + 5. We've also seen this total fall slightly from 218 to 217.5, indicating some under money across the market. The Lakers are -358 favorites (78.2%) to win the series at BetMGM. The Heat are + 300 underdogs. 

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