Early sharp action on NFL Week 13 games

November 26, 2019 12:38 AM

The Ravens crushed the Rams 45-6 last night, handing public bettors a pair of wins on both the spread and total. More than two-thirds of bets laid the points with Baltimore (closed at -3) and also took the over (46.5). Both cashed easily, much to the chagrin of contrarian bettors, wiseguys and sportsbooks. 

Today we have a gambling smorgasbord with 47 college basketball games, 2 NBA games, 3 NHL games and a pair of college football games. For an updated betting breakdown of all of Tuesday's action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Bettors should keep an eye out for neutral court unders in college hoops today. We have nearly 20 matches on Tuesday, with two games starting as early as 11 a.m. ET. Neutral court unders went 15-9 (62.5%) yesterday and are now 77-55 (58.3%) on the season. 

Also, be sure to monitor the weather for the Western Michigan-Northern Illinois college football game tonight (6 p.m. ET). The forecast calls for rain and 15-20 MPH winds. Some books have dropped the total from 57.5 all the way down to 50.5. Other books have kept this total off the board and haven't released a line yet. Since 2005, the under is 58% when the wind blows at 15 MPH or more and the total either stays the same or falls according to Bet Labs Sports. 

In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is falling for NFL Week 13. 

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts 

The stakes couldn't be higher for these AFC South rivals. Both teams sit at 6-5 and look to keep pace with the 7-4 Texans and while also staying in Wild Card contention. After starting the season 2-4, Tennessee has quietly rebounded and gone 4-1 behind Ryan Tannehill. The Titans have won two straight, including last week's 42-20 thumping of the Jags as 4.5-point favorites. Tennessee is 28 in point differential, averaging 22.27 PPG on offense and allowing 19.73 PPG on defense. The Colts are trending in the opposite direction. Indianapolis started 5-2 but has gone just 1-3 since, most recently falling to the Texans 20-17 (but covering as 3.5-point dogs). The Colts are 18 in point differential, averaging 22.18 PPG on offense and allowing 20.55 PPG on defense. Tennessee is 6-5 ATS while Indianapolis is 6-4-1 ATS.

This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a short 3-point home favorite. With oddsmakers typically awarding 3-point for home field advantage, this means the two teams are dead equal on a neutral field. The public is split and unsure who to take, but sharps pounced on the Titans at the key number of 3, which has since dropped the line down to 2.5. Tennessee has value as a road divisional dog (20-10 ATS this season, 67%) and a short road dog 6 or less (45-32 ATS, 58%). The total is 43.5. Divisional unders in December are 57% since 2003. 

1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at Miami Dolphins (2-9)

The Eagles have lost two games in a row, most recently falling to the Seahawks 17-9 last week as 2-point underdogs. However, with the Cowboys also losing to the Patriots, Philadelphia is only 1-game behind Dallas for first place in the NFC East. The Eagles are 4-7 ATS and -4 in point differential, averaging 22.09 PPG on offense and giving up 22.45 PPG on defense. A date with the Dolphins is just what the doctor ordered. After a brief two game winning streak, Miami has reverted back to form and dropped two in a row, including last week's 41-24 loss to the Browns as 11-point underdogs. The Dolphins have a league-worst -183 point differential, averaging only 14.83 PPG on offense while giving up 31.45 PPG on defense. 

This non-conference matchup opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. Both professional and public bettors are loading up on the Eagles to bounce back and crush the struggling Fins. With more than three-out-of-four bets backing Philadelphia, the line has risen to Eagles -9. Some books are even closing in on 9.5. Sharp money has also taken a position on the total. It opened at 46.5 and has fallen to 45.5. The forecast calls for 11-13 MPH winds at Hard Rock Stadium. Since 2003, the under has cashed at a 56% clip when wind speeds are 10 MPH or more. Adrian Hill is the lead official. He is a new referee, but the under is already 8-2 (80%) in games where Hill is the head ref. Both teams are 6-5 to the under this season.

8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots (10-1) at Houston Texans (7-4)

This Sunday Night showdown between two first place teams is shaping up to be a classic Pros vs Joes disagreement. The Patriots are tied with the 49ers for the best record in football and are coming off a gritty 13-9 bad weather win over the Cowboys (but failed to cover as 5.5-point favorites). New England os 7-4 ATS and boasts a league-best 183 point differential, averaging 27.27 PPG on offense while allowing only 10.64 PPG on defense. The Texans just beat the Colts 20-17 but failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. Houston is 5-6 ATS with a 13 point differential, averaging 24.09 PPG on offense and allowing 22.64 PPG on defense. 

The line opened with the Patriots listed as short 3.5-point road favorites. As expected, the public is pounding the Pats. However, despite three-out-of-four bets backing New England, this line has fallen down to the key number of 3. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by wiseguys pouncing on the Texans with the hook ( 3.5). No one ever got rich betting against the Pats (Belichick and Brady are 62% ATS together since 2003). But Houston has value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. The Texans also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday (Nov 21) compared to the Patriots playing on Sunday (Nov 24). The total opened at 44.5. The under in primetime games is 24-13 this season (65%). Tony Corrente will be the lead official. The under is 57% with Corrente as the head ref. The under is 8-3 in Patriots games and 7-4 in Texans games this season. 

More early sharp action

Bears -1 to -2.5 at Lions

Giants 7.5 to 6.5 vs Packers

Giants-Packers Under 47 to 45.5

Browns -1 to -2 at Steelers

Chargers -1.5 to -2.5 at Broncos

Raiders-Chiefs Under 54.5 to 51.5

Saints-Falcons Under 50 to 49

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