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Early NFL Wild Card Weekend Sharp Report

jimmyg

 

Today bettors have a loaded slate to choose from including 6 NBA games, 7 NHL games and 30 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.


In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for several key Wild Card weekend matchups...
 
 
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals
 
The Raiders (10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS) were once left for dead but won four straight down the stretch to sneak in as the 5-seed. The Raiders just upset the Chargers 35-32, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS) are the 4-seed and won the AFC North. Cincinnati rested their starters in Week 18, losing to the Browns 21-16 but covering as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bengals listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Respected money jumped on the Raiders plus the points, dropping the line from 6.5 to 6. Playoff dogs are 61-50 ATS (55%) over the past decade. Playoff dogs against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season are 20-10 ATS (67%). Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-8 ATS (78%). We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 48.5 to 49.5. At BetMGM, the over is receiving 89% of bets and 86% of money. 
 
 
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
 
The 49ers (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) went 7-2 down the stretch to earn the 6-seed. San Francisco just upset the Rams 27-24, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Cowboys (12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS) went 5-1 in their last six to win the AFC East and earn the 3-seed. Dallas crushed Philadelphia 51-26 in the finale, easily covering as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is all over the Cowboys as a short home favorite. However, this line has remained frozen at 3 and many shops are juicing up the 49ers 3 to -115, signaling liability on San Francisco and a possible fall to 2.5. Kyle Shanahan is 25-18 ATS (58%) as a dog in his career. Playoff dogs against teams who missed the postseason the previous year are 20-10 ATS (67%) over the past decade. 
 
 
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
 
The Steelers (9-7-1 SU, 8-9 ATS) needed a Week 18 miracle to sneak into the playoffs as the 7-seed. Pittsburgh just upset Baltimore 16-13, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Chiefs (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) are the 2-seed and won the AFC West. Kansas City just edged the Broncos 28-24, failing to cover as 11.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 13-point home favorite. The line has fallen from 13 to 12.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-8 ATS (78%) over the past decade. Sharps have also hit this under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 46.5. If the total drops at least a point, the under is 24-18 (57%) over the past decade. The forecast calls for mid 30s with 10 MPH winds at Arrowhead. These teams met three weeks ago and the Chiefs won 36-10. 

 

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