Early NFL Week 9 Sharp Report

October 31, 2022 10:26 PM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's turn the page to NFL Week 9 and examine where early smart money is leaning...

 

Green Bay Packers (-3, 50) at Detroit Lions

The Packers (3-5) have lost four straight games and just fell to the Bills 27-17 but covered as 10.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (1-6) have lost five straight games and just lost to the Dolphins 31-27, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. We've quickly seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3, signaling smart money grabbing the Lions plus the hook. Divisional dogs are 23-17 (58%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Lions, are 51-35 ATS (59%). Dan Campbell is 14-10 ATS (58%) as a dog in his career. We've also seen some respected money hit the over, raising the total from 49 to 50. The Lions are 5-2 to the over this season. 

 

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 50.5)

The Seahawks (5-3) have won three straight games and just took care of business against the Giants, winning 27-13 and covering as a 3-point home favorite. On the other hand, the Cardinals (3-5) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Vikings 34-26, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Seahawks plus the points, steaming Seattle down from +3 to +1.5. The Seahawks have value as a divisional dog (57%) and a dog who missed the playoffs the previous season (59%). Kyler Murray is just 9-14 ATS (39%) in his career as a favorite. 

 

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5.5, 39.5)

The Colts (3-4-1) have lost two straight games and just fell to the Commanders 17-16, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Patriots (4-4) have won three of their last four games and just beat the Jets 22-17, covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Patriots, yet we've seen New England fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Colts, with wiseguys grabbing the points with the road dog. Dogs +3.5 or more are 47-26 ATS (64%) this season. Dogs who didn't cover the previous week, like the Colts here, are 28-18 ATS (61%). The total has fallen from 40.5 to 39.5, signaling some under money. The Colts are 7-1 to the under this season. 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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