Early NFL Week 9 Sharp Report

October 31, 2022 10:26 PM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's turn the page to NFL Week 9 and examine where early smart money is leaning...


Green Bay Packers (-3, 50) at Detroit Lions

The Packers (3-5) have lost four straight games and just fell to the Bills 27-17 but covered as 10.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (1-6) have lost five straight games and just lost to the Dolphins 31-27, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. We've quickly seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3, signaling smart money grabbing the Lions plus the hook. Divisional dogs are 23-17 (58%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Lions, are 51-35 ATS (59%). Dan Campbell is 14-10 ATS (58%) as a dog in his career. We've also seen some respected money hit the over, raising the total from 49 to 50. The Lions are 5-2 to the over this season. 


Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 50.5)

The Seahawks (5-3) have won three straight games and just took care of business against the Giants, winning 27-13 and covering as a 3-point home favorite. On the other hand, the Cardinals (3-5) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Vikings 34-26, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Seahawks plus the points, steaming Seattle down from +3 to +1.5. The Seahawks have value as a divisional dog (57%) and a dog who missed the playoffs the previous season (59%). Kyler Murray is just 9-14 ATS (39%) in his career as a favorite. 


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5.5, 39.5)

The Colts (3-4-1) have lost two straight games and just fell to the Commanders 17-16, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Patriots (4-4) have won three of their last four games and just beat the Jets 22-17, covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Patriots, yet we've seen New England fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Colts, with wiseguys grabbing the points with the road dog. Dogs +3.5 or more are 47-26 ATS (64%) this season. Dogs who didn't cover the previous week, like the Colts here, are 28-18 ATS (61%). The total has fallen from 40.5 to 39.5, signaling some under money. The Colts are 7-1 to the under this season. 

back to news


Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers


The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips


Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks




Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All