Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted at 2:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 8...
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 42)
The Panthers (2-5) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 21-3 win over the Bucs, winning outright as 13-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons (3-4) have two of their last thee games and just fell to the Bengals 35-17, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Panthers plus the points, steaming Carolina down from +6.5 to +4.5. Divisional dogs are 20-15 ATS (57%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 45-30 ATS (60%) and "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more are 44-22 ATS (67%). Carolina has contrarian value (only receiving 39% of bets) and also has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (2-5) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (6-1).
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 40)
The Commanders (3-4) have won two-straight games and just took down the Packers 23-21, winning outright as 4-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Colts (3-3-1) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end after losing to the Titans 19-10, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 6-point home favorite. Wiseguys have taken the points with the Commanders, dropping the line from 6 all the way down to 3. The Commanders +3 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further drop off the key number of 3 down to 2.5. Road dogs are 36-26 ATS (58%) this season. Dogs with "severe" line movement in their favor of at least two points are 9-4 ATS (69%) this season and 60% ATS since 2019. Another reason for the big line move: the Colts have benched starting QB Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 40.5) at Houston Texans
The Titans (4-2) are riding a four-game win streak and just edged the Colts 19-10, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Texans (1-4-1) just fell to the Raiders 38-20, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy with and cover Tennessee and currently 80% of bets are laying the points with the Titans. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Titans fall from -3 down to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Texans, with pro bettors grabbing the points with the home dog. Dogs who failed to cover the previous week, like the Texans here, are 23-16 ATS (59%) this season. Houston is only receiving 20% of bets but 54% of dollars, a massive sharp money discrepancy in their favor.