Early NFL Week 8 Sharp Report

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The Saints held off the Seahawks 13-10 on Monday Night Football, although Seattle covered the spread as 6-point home dogs. With the cover, primetime dogs improve to 14-7 ATS (67%) on the season. Conference dogs 7 or less move to 35-20 ATS (64%). Last night's under easily cashed as well. The total opened at 44 and got steamed down to 42. Weather played a factor, with rain and 15 MPH winds aiding the under. Low totals of 45 or less are now 20-11 (65%) to the under this season. If the total stays the same or falls, the under is 33-27 (55%). 
 
Now we turn our attention to Tuesday, where bettors have Game 1 of the World Series, 7 NHL games and 5 NBA games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 8...

 
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

 
Both of these NFC foes are at the bottom of their division standings and desperate for a win. The Eagles (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Raiders 33-22 and failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (0-7 SU, 4-3 ATS) are the only winless team in the NFL. Detroit just lost to the Rams 28-19, although the Lions managed to cover as 16.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees the Eagles as the lesser of two evils and is laying the points with Philadelphia. However, we've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3. This signals some respected money grabbing Detroit at home. Conference dogs 7 or less are 35-20 ATS (64%) this season.
 
 
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
 
These non-division NFC opponents are looking to snap losing streaks. The 49ers (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) have lost four straight, including a 30-18 loss to the Colts last week, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bears (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) have dropped two straight. Chicago just fell to the Bucs 38-3, failing to cover as 12-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. But a closer look at the line shows the Bears  3.5 being juiced up to -120, signaling liability on Chicago and a possible drop down to the key number of 3. The 49ers are in the classic "Fade West Coast team going East for an early 1 p.m. game" spot. The Bears also have buy-low value as a dog off a 20-point blowout loss or more, which is 7-4 ATS this season and roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Pros are also leaning under, as we've seen the total dip from 42.5 to 39.5. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds in Chicago.
 
 
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
 
Both of these AFC non-division teams are looking to jockey for playoff positioning. The Patriots (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) are 2-1 over their last three games and just crushed the Jets 54-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a bye and just got demolished by the Ravens 34-6, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Justin Herbert and company off a bye. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 6 to 5.5. This indicates some respected money on Belichick and the Pats plus the points. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 41-32 ATS (56%) this season. Short road dogs 6 or less are 26-11 ATS (70%). Pros also seem to be leaning over. The total has ticked up from 47.5 to 49.
 
 
More Early Moves

Giants-Chiefs Under 52.5 to 51.5
Cowboys -1 to -2.5 at Vikings
Washington 3.5 to 3 at Broncos
Browns -3 to -3.5 vs Steelers
Panthers-Falcons Under 47 to 46
Dolphins-Bills Under 49 to 48
Titans-Colts Over 48 to 49

Cardinals -3.5 to -6 vs Packers

 

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