Early NFL Week 7 Sharp Report

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 7...

 

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42.5)

The Colts (3-2-1) have won two straight games and just beat the Jaguars 34-27, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (3-2) are coming off a bye and riding a three-game win streak. Tennessee beat Washington 21-17 before the bye, winning as a road pick'em. This line opened with the Titans listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk with Tennessee, steaming the Titans up from -1.5 to -3. Favorites off a bye, like the Titans here, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. This is due to the extra week of rest, rehab and game-planning advantage. Tennessee is receiving 74% of bets and 83% of money, indicating both "Pro and Joe" support. The Titans are -150 on the moneyline. The total has risen slightly from 42 to 42.5. 

 

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 52.5)

The Seahawks (3-3) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Cardinals 19-9, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Chargers (4-2) have won three straight games and just beat the Broncos 19-16 but failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with the Seahawks, dropping Seattle from 7.5 to 7. The Seahawks 7 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to 6.5. Dogs 3.5 or more are 38-19 (67%) this season. Dogs that missed the playoffs the previous season are 39-24 ATS (62%). Seattle also enjoys a rest vs tired advantage, having played on Sunday while the Chargers played on Monday. Sharp money has also hit this under, dropping the total from 53 to 52.5. 

 

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 47.5)

The Falcons (3-3) have won three of their last four games and just beat the 49ers 28-14, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Bengals (3-3) have also won three of their last four and just edged the Saints 30-26, covering as a 3-point road favorite. This line opened with the Bengals listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Falcons plus the points, dropping the line down from 6.5 to 6. Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Pros are also expecting a high scoring game, steaming the total up from 43.5 to 47.5. The over is receiving 74% of bets but 96% of money, a sharp over discrepancy. 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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