Early NFL Week 7 Sharp Report

falcons
 
The Titans upset the Bills 34-31 on Monday Night Football, winning outright as 6-point home dogs. It was a much-needed win for contrarians and sportsbooks as Sunday's action skewed heavily to popular chalk (favorites 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS). Many sportsbooks reported having their worst week of the season on Sunday. With the Titans' win and cover, primetime dogs improve to 12-6 ATS (67 percent) on the season. 
 
Now we turn our attention to Tuesday, where bettors have two NBA Opening Night games, 11 NHL games and a pair of MLB playoff games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
 
In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 7...
 
 
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
 
This non-conference matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Falcons (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Jets 27-20 in London, covering as 3-point favorites. On the flipside, the Dolphins (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost four straight and just fell to the Jags 23-20 in London, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Atlanta, who is coming off a bye, steaming the Falcons from  2.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp "Dog to Favorite" line movement for the Falcons. Non-conference favorites are 17-12 ATS (59 percent) this season. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-26 ATS (60 percent). This is a big rest advantage for Atlanta. Favorites off a bye are roughly 58 percent ATS over the past decade, with road favorites roughly 66 percent ATS. Both teams are giving up roughly 30 points per game defensively. The difference comes on offense, where the Falcons are averaging 21 PPG on offense and the Dolphins just 16.5 PPG. 
 
 
1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
 
Both these NFC foes are looking to snap losing streaks. The Panthers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) have dropped three straight and just fell to the Vikings 34-28, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost two straight and just got waxed by the Rams 38-11, failing to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Caroliba listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to fade the Giants and lay the points with the Panthers, who have a better won-loss record. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Carolina, the line has remained frozen at -3. In fact, most shops are juicing up the  3 to -115 and some are even falling to 2.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and reverse line movement on the Giants getting the key number of  3. Dogs off a 20-point blowout loss or more are roughly 55 percent ATS over the past decade. Conference dogs are 39-26 ATS (60 percent). 
 
 
8:20 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers
 
This Sunday night showdown features a pair of sub .500 teams looking to get back in the playoff conversation. The Colts (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just demolished Houston 31-3, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Cardinals 17-10 last week, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have taken the points with road dog Indianapolis, dropping the line from 5 to 3.5. Short road dogs  6 or less are 25-9 ATS (74 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 12-6 ATS (67 percent). 
 
 
More Week 7 Moves
Broncos 6 to 3.5 at Browns
Chiefs -3 to -3.5 at Titans
Eagles-Raiders over 47.5 to 49
Bears-Bucs under 49 to 47
Saints -3.5 to -5 at Seahawks
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