Early NFL Week 7 Sharp Report: Pros eyeing Cowboys-Washington, Lions-Falcons and 49ers-Patriots

October 20, 2020 11:47 PM

Last night, the Dodgers (-160) beat the Rays 8-3 in Game 1 of the World Series. Los Angeles cashed for bettors willing to pay the hefty price. The public was split on the game and there was some late money to the Rays (+ 155 down to + 145). But Dodger chalk ruled out. Favorites continue to crush in the playoffs. Favorites are now 32-16 (67%) this postseason. The Over (7.5) cashed for the public. Sharps were eying the under, dropping it from 8 to 7.5.

With the Dodgers up 1-0, Los Angeles is now a -385 favorite (79.4% implied probability) to win the series at BetMGM. The Rays are + 300 dogs. Before Game 1, it was Dodgers -200, Rays + 165.

Here are the updated Exact Series prices

  • Dodgers 4-0 (+ 375)
  • Dodgers 4-1 (+ 265)
  • Dodgers 4-2 (+ 350)
  • Dodgers 4-3 (+ 550)
  • Rays 4-1 (+ 2000)
  • Rays 4-2 (+ 900)
  • Rays 4-3 (+ 700)

Today we have a relatively light betting slate, headlined by Game 2 of the World Series. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where early smart money is flowing for NFL Week 7.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Washington

Both of these NFC rivals have struggled mightily this season, combining for a putrid 3-9 overall record. The Cowboys (2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS) were completely embarrassed last week, falling to the Cardinals 38-10 as 1-point home favorites on Monday Night. Dallas hasn't covered a single game this season. The only other 0-6 ATS team in the NFL is the Jets. On the flip side, Washington (1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) is mired in a 5-game losing skid but was able to cover last week, losing to the Giants 20-19 as 1.5-point dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point road favorite. We've seen a massive wave of sharp action hit Washington plus the points, dropping this line all the way down to a pick'em. Washington has value as a divisional dog with a line move in their favor. Washington could have an edge with their ferocious front seven facing a porous and injury riddled Dallas offensive line. Washington also has a rest advantage as Dallas played on Monday night. We've seen pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46. 

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Both of these NFC foes are coming off impressive Week 6 victories. The Lions (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) returned from their bye week with a dominant 34-16 win over the Jags, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) got a bounce from their new head coach, upsetting the Vikings 40-23, winning straight up as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3-point home favorite. Spread bets are split and the public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen pro money get down on the Lions at the key number of + 3, dropping this line down to 2.5. Some books are even down to 2. Short road dogs + 6 or less have gone 23-11 ATS (68%) this season. Road teams with a line move in their favor have gone 28-16 ATS (64%) this season. The total is a high 57. Both teams have been profitable to the over, with the Lions 3-2 and Falcons 4-2.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots

These non-conference opponents are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid in Week 6 with a big 24-16 upset win over the Rams, winning outright as 2-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have been mired in virus concerns and just lost their second straight game last week, falling to the Broncos 18-12 and losing straight up as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 3-point home favorite. Spread bets are split in this game and the public doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line fall from Pats -3 to -2.5. This signals pro money grabbing the points and backing San Francisco at the key number of + 3. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 23-11 ATS (68%) this season. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 27-16 ATS (63%). In his young career, Jimmy Garoppolo is 10-3 ATS as a dog.

More Week 7 line moves

  • Giants + 6 to + 4.5 at Eagles
  • Giants-Eagles Under 45 to 43.5
  • Bengals + 4 to + 3 vs Browns
  • Bills -11 to -13 at Jets
  • Packers -3 to -3.5 at Texans
  • Chiefs -8.5 to -9.5 at Broncos
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