Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line today at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.
In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 6...
New England Patriots (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)
The Patriots just shutout the Lions 29-0, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Browns just fell to the Chargers 30-28, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Browns listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Sharps immediately jumped on New England plus the hook (+3.5), dropping the line down from 3.5 to 3. Road dogs are 28-18 ATS (61%) this season. The Patriots have value as a dog with reverse line movement and a dog in a low total game (42.5). Low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
The 49ers are coming off a 37-15 blowout win over the Panthers, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons just lost to the Bucs 21-15 but covered as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the chalk with the 49ers. However, despite 78% of bets backing San Francisco, we've seen the 49ers fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Falcons, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Dogs are 48-31 ATS (61%) this season. Conference dogs +6 or less are 233-155 ATS (60%) since 2019. The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. The total has ticked up slightly from 43 to 43.5. The over is receiving 58% of bets but 73% of money, a sharp over discrepancy.
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (4-1)
The Ravens just beat the Bengals 19-17 but failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Giants just shocked the Packers 27-22, winning outright as 9-point dogs in London. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 6-point road favorite. Wiseguys have jumped on the Giants plus the points at home, dropping the line from 6 to 5. Some shops are even down to 4.5. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Giants here, are 34-19 ATS (64%) this season. Daniel Jones is 20-13 ATS (61%) in his career as a dog. Lamar Jackson is just 16-21 ATS (43%) in his career as a favorite of more than 3-points.