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Early NFL Week 6 Sharp Report: Pros eyeing Browns-Steelers, Lions-Jags and Chiefs-Bills

October 14, 2020 01:00 AM

Sharps, contrarians and sportsbooks had a successful Tuesday Night as the Tennessee Titans (+ 3) upset the Buffalo Bills 42-16. The Titans were a blue-print wiseguy play. The line opened at Bills -3.5 and despite roughly two-thirds of public bettors laying the points with Buffalo, we saw this line fall from -3.5 to -3. This was a signal that pro money had scooped up the Titans getting the hook (+ 3.5), causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor.

Think of it this way: why would sportsbooks drop the line to give public Bills bettors an even better number? They're already betting Buffalo to begin with. Remember, if it looks too good to be true, it almost always is. The line fell to the Titans because respected pro money hit Tennessee.

Today, we have a relatively light betting slate headlined by 2 MLB playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where early smart money is flowing for NFL Week 6.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

These AFC North leaders enter with a combined 8-2 record. Cleveland (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) has been one of the biggest surprises of the early season. The Browns fell to the Ravens in Week 1 but have rebounded impressively with four straight wins, most recently beating the Colts 32-23 as 1-point home favorites. The Browns will now face their stiffest test of the season as they travel to the Steel City to take on the undefeated Steelers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS). Pittsburgh is coming off a 38-29 win over the Eagles, covering as 7.5-point favorites. This line opened with the Steelers listed as 4.5-point home favorites. Sharps have identified an edge with the Browns and grabbed Cleveland plus the points, dropping this line from Steelers -4.5 to -3.5. Cleveland has value as a divisional dog. Road teams with a line move (like Browns + 4.5 to + 3.5) are 64% ATS this season.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars

This non-conference showdown features two losing teams with a combined record of 2-7. The Lions (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) lost to the Saints 35-29 their last time out, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. After an impressive Week 1 upset win over the Colts, the Jaguars (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) have fallen on hard times and dropped four straight games, most recently losing to the Texans 30-16 as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Detroit listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Lions, which has pushed this line up from -2.5 to -3. Some shops are even at -3.5. Road teams with a line move in their favor have been a smart bet this season going, going 23-13 ATS (64%). Detroit also has a big rest and game-plan advantage as they are coming off a bye week. Historically, favorites off a bye week have covered at roughly a 60% clip over the past decade.

Monday 5 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Both of these AFC heavyweights are looking to bounce-back after suffering their first losses of the season in Week 5. The Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) just got taken down at home by the Raiders 40-32, losing straight up as 10.5-point favorites. Similarly, the Bills (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) just got crushed by the Titans 42-16, losing straight up as 3.5-point favorites on Tuesday night. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite. Smart money immediately hit the Chiefs coming off a loss, pushing the line up to KC -3.5. The lead official is Ron Torbert. Road teams have gone roughly 60% ATS in games where Torbert is the head ref. The Chiefs enjoy a rest advantage here, as they last played on Sunday while the Bills played on Tuesday. The Bills will have value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet Monday night game.

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