Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET covering the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For an in-depth breakdown of today's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I will also be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.
In the meantime, let's discuss where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 5...
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)
The Falcons started the season 0-2 but have since won two straight. Atlanta is coming off a 23-20 win over the Browns, winning outright as 1-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Bucs started the season 2-0 but have since lost two straight. Tampa Bay just got rolled by the Chiefs 41-31, losing outright as 2-point home favorites. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 9-point home favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with the Falcons, dropping this line from 9 to 8.5. Some shops have even touched 8. Atlanta is currently receiving 54% of bets but 70% of money. Reading between the lines, the public is split but the bigger money wagers are with the Falcons. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Falcons here, are 28-14 (67%) this season. Road dogs are 21-14 ATS (67%). Atlanta also has value as a divisional dog, as the built-in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
The Bengals are riding a two-game win streak and just took down the Dolphins 27-15, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Bills 23-20, pushing as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line quickly fall from 3.5 to 3, signaling pro money backing the Bengals plus the points. Only 35% of bets are backing Cincinnati, giving the Bengals elevated contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game on Sunday Night Football. Cincinnati also has value as a divisional dog. Joe Burrow is 13-7 ATS (65%) in his career as a dog. Cincinnati holds a rest advantage as well, having last played on Thursday while the Ravens played on Sunday. The total is 48.5. Divisional unders are 17-5 (77%) this season. Primetime unders are 9-4.
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
The Cowboys have won three straight games and just dismissed the Commanders 25-10, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Rams just fell to the 49ers 24-9, failing to cover as 2-point road dogs. This line opened with the Rams listed as a 6-point home favorite. Sharp money has rushed to the window to grab Dallas plus the points, dropping the line from 6 down to 4.5. Dallas is getting 74% of bets but 86% of money, signaling both Pro and Joe support. Conference dogs +6 or less are 228-152 (60%) since 2019. Dallas is 3-1 ATS while the Rams are 1-3 ATS. Los Angeles is also on a short week having just played on Monday night. Pros have also targeted the under, dropping the total from 46 to 45.5. The under is receiving 68% of bets but 85% of money. Unders are 38-26 (59%) this season. Both teams are 3-1 to the under on the season.
More Early Week 5 Moves
Eagles -4 to -5.5 at Cardinals
49ers -3.5 to -5 at Panthers
Broncos -2.5 to -3.5 vs Colts
Seahawks-Saints over 43.5 to 45.5
Bears-Vikings over 43 to 44