Early NFL Week 4 Sharp Report

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Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-2-1)

Both of these AFC opponents are coming off Week 3 losses. The Chargers got rolled by the Jaguars 38-10, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Texans fell to the Bears 23-20, pushing as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 7-point road favorite. Smart money has jumped all over the Texans getting points, dropping the line down from 7 to 5. Currently 35% of bets but 56% of money is on Houston, signaling a sharp contrarian "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy in the Texans' favor. Dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 13-5 ATS (72%) this season. Conference dogs 6 or less are 222-146 ATS (60%) since 2019. The Texans are winless but are 2-0-1 ATS. Sharps have also hit this under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5. The Chargers are dealing with several significant injuries, with QB Justin Herbert hobbled (ribs), OT Rashawn Slater (biceps) placed on IR and DE Joey Bosa doubtful (groin). 

 

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Both of these non-conference opponents posted wins in Week 3. The Browns took down the Steelers 29-17, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Falcons just beat the Seahawks 27-23, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the Browns. However, despite receiving 60% of bets, we've seen Cleveland fall from -3 down to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Falcons, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Atlanta is only receiving 40% bets but 69% of money, indicating bigger sharper wagers in their favor. It's also interesting that the Browns hold a rest advantage, having played on Thursday compared to Sunday for the Falcons, yet smart money is still on Atlanta. Dogs that missed the playoffs the previous season are 23-8 ATS (74%) this season. We could also be looking at a high scoring game here, as the total has been steamed up from 45 to 49.5. Both teams are 3-0 to the over this season. 

 

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

These NFC non-division foes are coming off opposite Week 3 performances. The Cardinals fell to the Rams 20-12, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Panthers just posted a big 22-14 victory over the Saints, winning outright as 2-point home dogs. This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a 3-point road favorite. Wiseguys think this line is way too high and have hammered Carolina, flipping the Panthers all the way to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, the Panthers are receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Carolina is only receiving 29% of bets but 76% of money, a whopping 47% sharp money discrepancy. Both teams are averaging 21 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, with Carolina allowing 20 PPG compared to 29 PPG for Arizona. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5. Keep an eye on the weather here, as the early forecast calls for 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain. 

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College Lines Revealed: ATS record is a great indicator as to if the market overvalues or undervalues a team, especially late in the season. Consider betting on teams with a strong ATS record if you believe the betting market has not properly adjusted. View more tips

Live Bet Sunday: Unless you really feel you need to get out of a bet, you don't have to attempt to hedge when the game isn't going as you predicted. Hedging is just raises the floor, but lowers the ceiling on you original investment. Unless you're confident that you're you're going to win your hedge, sometimes it's best to ride out the original bet. View more tips

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Matt Youmans: Colts -2.5 vs. Steelers. View more picks.

Dave Tuley: Broncos +8 vs. RavensView more picks.

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