Early NFL Week 3 Sharp Report

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minute podcast highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. It will be posted at 6:30 a.m. ET. For an in-depth breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 3...

 

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

These NFC North rivals are coming off opposite performances in Week 2. The Lions edged the Commanders 36-27, covering as a pick'em play at home. On the flip side, the Vikings fell to the Eagles 24-7 on Monday Night Football, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 7-point home favorite. We've seen this like inch down from 7 to 6.5 across the market, signaling respected money grabbing the points with Detroit. The Lions have value as a road dog (259-203 ATS, 56% since 2018) and a divisional dog (158-134 ATS, 54% since 2018). Dan Campbell is 13-6 ATS (68%) as a dog as head coach of the Lions. Detroit also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Sunday while the Vikings played Monday night. Pros are also expecting a shootout, steaming the total up from 50 to 52.5. The over is receiving 72% of bets but 94% of money at DraftKings. The Lions are 2-0 to the over this season. 

 

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

Both of these Super bowl hopefuls are coming off big victories. The Packers brushed aside the Bears 27-10, covering as 10-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs edged the Saints 20-10, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. Sharps have grabbed the points with the Packers, dropping the line down from 3 to 2.5. Some shops are even down to 2. Short road dogs +3 or less are 73-54 ATS (58%) since 2019. Dogs who made the playoffs the previous season are 124-94 ATS (57%) since 2019. One reason for the line move to Green Bay is the fact that Tampa Bay will be without star WR Mike Evans due to suspension. The Packers are receiving 52% bets but 71% of the money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Green Bay could be worth a look in a teaser +2.5 to +8.5, which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Wiseguys have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 41.5. Both teams are 2-0 to the under this season. 

 

Buffalo Bills (2-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

Both of these AFC East foes are undefeated. The Bills just demolished the Titans 41-7 on Monday Night Football, easily covering as 10-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Dolphins are coming off a thrilling 42-38 come-from-behind win over the Ravens, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Bills, with 83% of early bets laying the points with Josh Allen and company. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line remain frozen at 5. Some shops have even dipped to 4.5, signaling pro money grabbing the points with the home dog. Miami has value as a contrarian home divisional dog with reverse line movement in their favor. Conference dogs 6 or less are 216-141 ATS (61%) since 2019. Tua Tagovailoa is is 8-3 ATS (73%) as a dog in his career. Miami also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Sunday while the Bills played on Monday night.

 

More Week 3 Line Moves

Jets +6 to +4.5 vs Bengals

Falcons +3 to +2 at Seahawks

49ers +1.5 to -1.5 at Broncos

Cowboys +3 to +2.5 at Giants

Texans +3 to +2.5 at Bears

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