Early NFL Week 2 Sharp Report

September 13, 2022 09:46 AM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a new 10-15 podcast posted every weekday at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For updated in-depth coverage of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where early money is leaning for NFL Week 2...

 

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

Both of these teams are coming off season opening wins and covers. The Dolphins dismissed the Patriots 20-7, covering as 3-point home favorites. And the Ravens brushed aside the Jets 24-9, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 4-point home favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with the Dolphins, dropping the line from 4 to 3.5. The Miami +3.5 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible fall down to the key number of 3. Short road dogs +6 or less are 158-102 (61%) since 2019. Miami is currently receiving 54% of bets but 74% of money at DraftKings, signaling a sharp bet vs dollar discrepancy in their favor. Pro money has also hit the under, forcing oddsmakers to drop the total from 46 to 43.5. The under is only receiving 25% of bets but 58% of money. Both teams went under in Week 1. 

 

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at New York Giants (1-0)

The Panthers fell to the Browns 26-24 in the season opener, losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Giants are coming off a gutsy 21-20 win over the Titans, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Giants listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys seem to think this line is a bit short and they've steamed New York up from -1.5 to -2.5. New York is receiving 59% of bets but 80% of the money, signaling a positive 21% sharp money discrepancy in their favor. The Giants are -135 on the moneyline. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has ticked up from 42.5 to 43.5. Currently 62% of bets and 78% of money is taking the over. 

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Both of these teams are coming off season opening victories. The Vikings crushed the Packers 23-7, easily covering as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles held off the Lions 38-35, although Philadelphia failed to cover as a 6-point road favorite. This Monday Night Football clash opened with the Eagles listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected bettors have pounced on the Vikings getting points, dropping the line down from 3 to 1.5. Primetime dogs are 60-44 ATS (58%) since 2019. Short road dogs +3 or less are 73-54 (58%) since 2019. The Vikings are also a potential teaser candidate. By taking Minnesota up from +1.5 to +7.5, wiseguys pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Sharps also expect a shootout, steaming the total up from 47.5 to 51.5. A whopping 86% of bets and 97% of money is on the over. 

 

More Week 2 Moves

Raiders -3 to -5.5 vs Cardinals

Bills -7.5 to -10 vs Titans

Texans +11 to +10 at Broncos

Falcons +13 to +10.5 at Rams

Lions -1 to -2.5 vs Commanders

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