Early NFL Week 18 Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded slate to choose from including 11 NBA games, 2 NHL games and 30 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 18...
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Both of these teams are on the playoff bubble and must win and get some help in order to make the postseason. The Steelers (8-7-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) just beat the Browns 26-14, covering as 1-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Ravens (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) have been decimated by injuries and lost five straight. The Ravens just fell to the Rams 20-19, although Baltimore covered as a 7-point home dog. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with Big Ben, dropping the line down from 6.5 to 5.5. Short road dogs  6 or less are 48-27 ATS (64%) this season. Pittsburgh has value as a divisional dog and a dog with a low total (41). The lead ref, Shawn Hochuli, has historically favored road teams (35-25 ATS, 58%). Mike Tomlin is 44-23 ATS (66%) in his career as a dog. 

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

This game is a classic example of differing motivations. The Seahawks (6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) have been eliminated from playoff contention and rumors are swirling that Wilson and Carroll are due for a break up. On the flip side, the Cardinals (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS) are coming off a big win over Dallas and can catch the Rams for the division if they win this game and get some help. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, pushing Arizona up to -6.5. This could be a tease play, taking Arizona down from -6.5 to -0.5. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 46.5 to 48. These teams met back on November 21 and the Cardinals won 23-13. 


San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

This is a huge game for both NFC West teams, as the 49ers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) are currently the 6-seed while the Rams (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) are the 2-seed. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall to 4, which indicates respected money grabbing the points with the 49ers. San Francisco has value as a road divisional dog with a line move in their favor. These teams met back in Week 10 and the 49ers dominated and won 31-10. Kyle Shanahan is 24-17 ATS (59%) in his career as a dog. 


Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

This AFC West matchup was flexed to Sunday Night as both teams are on the bubble and fighting for their playoff lives. The Chargers opened as a 2.5-point road favorite and heavy public betting on Herbert and Company has pushed the line up to key number of 3. We've seen some sharp buyback on the Raiders  3, with many shops juicing up Vegas  3 to -115, signaling a possible fall back to 2.5. One big variable here: the Raiders might get star tight end Darren Waller back from injury. Vegas has value as a contrarian divisional dog at home. Primetime dogs have cashed at roughly a 57% clip this season. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game. The total has been steamed up from 47.5 to 49.5.


More Week 18 Moves

Cowboys -4 to -7 at Eagles

Chiefs -3 to -10 at Broncos

Lions  11 to  2.5 vs Packers

Bears  6 to  2.5 at Vikings

Patriots -2.5 to -6.5 at Dolphins

Colts -8.5 to -15.5 at Jags

Washington -3.5 to -6.5 at Giants

Bengals  1.5 to -3 at Browns

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