Early NFL Week 17 Sharp Report

broncos

Today the Holiday Week continues with three College Football Bowl games, 9 NBA games, 6 NHL games and a full College Basketball slate. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.


In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 17...
 
 

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

The Broncos (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) have lost two straight and just fell to the Raiders 17-13 as a pick'em. Similarly, the Chargers (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) have also dropped two straight and just suffered an embarrassing 41-29 defeat to the Texans, losing outright as 13.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is loading up on the Chargers expecting a "get right" performance after a bad loss. However, this line has dropped from 6 to 5.5, signaling some wiseguy money grabbing the points with Denver. Road divisional dogs are 26-20 ATS (57%) this season. Short road dogs  6 or less are 49-26 ATS (65%). Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (68-50 ATS (58%). Denver could be worth a look in a teaser ( 5.5 to  11.5), which goes through the key numbers of 7 and 10. 

 

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers

The Texans (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) have won two straight games and just shocked the Chargers 41-29, winning outright as 13.5-point home dogs. Conversely, the 49ers (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) just fell to the Titans 20-17, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 15-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Houston, dropping the line from 15 to 12.5. This move was due in large part to Jimmy Garoppolo's thumb injury. If Garoppolo can't play, rookie Trey Lance will get the start. Houston has value as a double-digit dog in a low total game (44). Road dogs are 79-60 ATS (57%) this season. 

 

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

The Vikings (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS) just fell to the Rams 30-23, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS) have the best record in the NFL and just edged the Browns 24-22, although Green Bay failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Packers listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is hammering Rodgers in a primetime home spot, yet we've seen the line tick down from 7 to 6.5 at some shops. This indicates some respected money buying low on Minnesota plus the points. Road dogs are 79-60 ATS (57%) this season. Mike Zimmer is 5-2 ATS off a loss this season and 35-17 ATS (67%) off a loss with the Vikings. Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (36-21 ATS, 63%). Green Bay will likely be a popular teaser play (-6.5 to -0.5). 

 

More Week 17 Moves

Chiefs -4 to -5 at Bengals

Chiefs-Bengals Over 48.5 to 49.5

Rams -3 to -4 at Ravens

Cardinals-Cowboys Over 50 to 51.5

 

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