Early NFL Week 17 Sharp Action Report for Jets-Pats, Seahawks-49ers and Washington-Eagles

December 30, 2020 12:13 AM

Happy Wednesday! We have a loaded slate of two college football bowl games, 6 NBA games and 40-plus college basketball games today. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m. ET to offer an action update. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be breaking down all the latest line moves across the betting market.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of NFL Week 17 games receiving early line movement...

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: New York Jets at New England Patriots

Both of these bitter AFC East rivals are eliminated from the playoffs. But one team is trending up while the other is crumbling down the stretch. The Jets (2-13 SU, 6-9 ATS) were once winless but have now won two in a row, most recently upsetting the Browns 23-16 last week and winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) have lost three straight and just got crushed by the Bills 38-9 on Monday Night, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. The lookahead line on this game was Patriots -7.5. The public still thinks the Pats are better than the Jets, but sharp money seems to be fading New England. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on New York, dropping the Jets from + 5 to + 3. Pros targeted New York anything with the hook (+ 3.5) or better. New York has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (62% ATS this season) and a divisional dog (58% ATS). The Jets also enjoy a rest advantage as the Pats are on a short week and just played on Monday night. The total has fallen from 43 to 41. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with New York 9-6 and New England 10-4-1. The Pats beat the Jets 30-27 in Week 9.  

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

This NFC West showdown features one team looking to improve their playoff seeding and another looking to play spoiler. The Seahawks (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) have won three straight, including a 20-9 beatdown of the Rams last week, easily covering as short 1.5-point home favorites. The Seahawks have clinched a playoff berth by winning their division and can rise higher than the 3-seed with a win and some help. On the other hand, the 49ers (6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) have already been eliminated from the playoffs. However, San Francisco snapped a three-game losing skid and beat the Cardinals 20-12 last week, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back Russell Wilson and the Hawks, yet we've seen this line fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This sharp reverse line movement indicates pro money backing San Francisco plus the points. The 49ers have value as a home divisional dog (61% ATS this season). We've also seen respected money back the under, dropping the total from 47 to 46. Both teams are profitable to the under, with Seattle 9-6 and the 49ers 8-7. The Seahawks beat the 49ers 37-27 in Week 8. 

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles

This Sunday Night Football Showdown is one of the most consequential games of the Week 17 slate. Washington (6-9 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) has lost two straight, most recently falling to the Panthers 20-13 last week and failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. However, Washington still controls its own destiny. With a victory over Philadelphia, the Football Team wins the NFC East and punches its ticket to the playoffs. This game doesn't mean much to the Eagles (4-10-1 SU, 5-10 ATS), who have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Philadelphia has lost two straight and is just 1-6 over their last seven. The Eagles got rolled by the Cowboys 37-17 last week, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. The lookahead line on this game was Eagles -4 at home. However, heavy wiseguy action has pounded the Football Team, flipping this line to Washington -2. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has been historically profitable for away teams (59% ATS). The Eagles will have value as a buy-low primetime dog and home divisional dog (61% ATS). Both teams are profitable to the under (Washington 9-5-1 and Philadelphia 8-7), yet we've seen the total rise slightly from 42 to 43. The Football Team beat the Eagles 27-17 in Week 1. 

More Week 17 Line Moves

Cowboys + 3 to -3 at Giants

Browns -6 to -10 vs Steelers

Dolphins + 5 to + 3 at Bills

Raiders + 2 to -2.5 at Broncos

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