Early NFL Week 16 Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded slate to choose from, including 6 NBA games, 40 College Basketball games and a College Football Bowl Game. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 16...

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals

These playoff hopefuls are trending in opposite directions. The Colts (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) are 7-2 over their last nine games and just beat the Patriots 27-17, covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) once had the NFL's best record but have since lost two straight and just fell to the lowly 30-12, losing outright as 13-point road favorites. This early lookahead line was Cardinals -4. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. As soon as this number was posted, wiseguys pounced on the red-hot Colts plus the points, dropping the line down a pick'em. Some shops are even hopping the fence to Colts -1. Essentially, Indianapolis is receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (67-50 ATS, 57%). The Colts also have a rest advantage, having played on Saturday while the Cardinals played Sunday.


Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-2.5, 41.5)

If the NFL Draft was today, these teams would have two of the top four picks. The Jags (2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS) have dropped six straight and just fell to the Texans 30-16, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Jets (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS) have lost three straight and just fell to the Dolphins 31-24, although New York covered as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with New York listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two awful teams and doesn't know who to back. Yet we've seen the Jets move from -1.5 to -2.5, signaling sharp money laying the points with the short home favorite. Keep an eye on the weather in this one. The forecast calls for low 30s with possibly some rain and 15 MPH winds. The total is 41.5. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically. The Jags are 11-3 to the under this season. 


Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders 

Both of these AFC West rivals are hanging by a thread in terms of their postseason chances. The Broncos (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) just lost to the Bengals 15-10, losing outright as a 3-point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Raiders (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) just beat the Browns 16-14, although they failed to cover as 3-point road favorites. This line opened at a pick'em. We've seen respected money back Las Vegas, pushing the Raiders to a 1-point home favorite. One reason for the line move to Vegas: the Broncos are expected to start backup Drew Lock in place of injured Teddy Bridgewater. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. Denver is 11-3 to the under this season. Late season divisional unders are 17-12 (59%) since Week 11. 


More Week 15 Moves

Dolphins-Saints Under 40.5 to 38.5

Washington-Cowboys Under 48 to 46.5

Patriots -2 to -2.5 vs Bills

Texans  11 to  9.5 vs Chargers

Eagles -9 to -10 vs Giants

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