Early NFL Week 15 Sharp Report

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The Rams upset the Cardinals 30-23 on Monday Night Football, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. It was a much-needed win for sportsbooks and contrarian bettors after favorites went 10-2 ATS on Sunday. At BetMGM nearly 80% of bets laid the points with Arizona, who moved from -2.5 to -3 late in the day once it was announced that Jalen Ramsey and Tyler Higbee would miss the game due to COVID. However, it didn't matter as the Rams posted a convincing victory. Last night's over (51) also cashed on a late field goal, pushing overs to 10-3-1 on the week. 

Now we move on to Tuesday, where bettors have 3 NBA games, 13 NHL games and a full College Basketball slate to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.


In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 15...
 
 
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
 
This primetime Saturday night matchup features two playoff contenders coming off bye weeks. The Patriots (9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS) have won seven straight and just took down the Bills 14-10, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Similarly, the Colts (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) are 6-2 over their last eight games and just waxed the Texans 31-10, easily covering as 10-point road favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Some shops even opened New England as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is happy to grab the points with the streaking Patriots, yet we've seen this line flip to Colts -2. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" reverse line movement on the Colts. At this point, the Patriots are in a prime teaser spot ( 2 to  8), which goes through multiple key numbers. Short road dogs  3 or less are 23-10 ATS (70%) this season. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 44 to 45.5. The Colts are 8-5 to the over this season. The Patriots are 7-6 to the under. 
 
 
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
 
Both of these AFC foes have struggled as of late and are looking to get back on track. The Titans (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid with a 20-0 win over the Jags last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Steelers (6-6-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) are just 1-3 over their last four games. Pittsburgh just fell to Minnesota 36-28, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Titans listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with the home dog Steelers, dropping the line from 2.5 to 2. Some shops are even inching down to 1.5. Pittsburgh has a rest advantage, as they last played on Thursday while the Titans played on Sunday. Conference dogs  7 or less are 65-34 ATS (66%). Mike Tomlin is 43-22 ATS (66%) in his career as a dog. The Steelers are also in a valuable teaser spot ( 2 to  8), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 
 
 
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
 
This Sunday Night showdown features a pair of NFC South rivals coming off wins. The Saints (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) just crushed the Jets 30-9, easily covering as 4.5-point road favorites. The loss snapped a five-game losing streak for New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Bucs (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won four straight and just edged the Bills 33-27, covering in overtime as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as an 11.5-point home favorite. Sharps seem to think this line is a bit high and have grabbed the points with the Saints, dropping the line from 11.5 to 11 or even 10.5 at some shops. Road divisional dogs are 21-16 ATS (57%) this season. Conference dogs are 80-56 ATS (59%) and primetime dogs are 25-17 ATS (60%). Dogs off a blowout win of 20 points are 18-12 ATS (60%) over the past two seasons. The Saints beat the Bucs 36-27 in Week 8. 
 
More Week 15 Moves
Chiefs -3 to -4 at Chargers
Raiders-Browns Under 43 to 42
Eagles -2.5 to -4.5 vs Washington
 
 
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