The Patriots upset the Bills 14-10 on Monday Night Football, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. With New England covering, short road dogs 3 or less improve to 20-10 ATS (67%) on the season and primetime dogs improve to 24-15 ATS (62%).
The under also cashed easily, with the two teams combining for just 24 points. It was a classic "windy under" for wiseguys, who steamed the total down from 45 to 41 on reports of severe winds and inclement weather in Orchard Park. Windy unders 10 MPH or more improve to 38-21 (64%) this season. Primetime unders are now 22-16 (58%).
In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 14...
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Both of these AFC North rivals are looking to rebound from losses. They're also playing each other for the second time in three weeks. The Ravens (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) just fell to the Steelers 20-19, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) lost to the Ravens 10-16, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Browns, steaming Cleveland up from -1.5 to -2.5. Cleveland has a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while Baltimore played on Sunday. Favorites off a bye are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Baltimore is riddled with injuries and just lost star CB Marlon Humpphrey for the season. Wiseguys have also hit this under, dropping the total from 43 to 42.5. The forecast calls for low 40s with 15 MPH winds, which qualifies as a "Windy Under" system match. Late season divisional unders are 12-4 (75%) since Week 11.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
This big NFC East showdown features the two best teams in the division facing off. The first-place Cowboys (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) just beat the Saints 27-17, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, red-hot Washington (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won four straight, including a 17-15 win over the Raiders last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 5-point road favorite. We've seen this line fall from 5 to 4, signaling some sharp money grabbing the points with the Football Team. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 63-33 ATS (66%). The total has ticked down slightly from 49 to 48.5. The forecast calls for rain and 10-15 MPH winds. December divisional totals 45 or higher have gone under at a 56% clip the past decade.
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This non-conference showdown was once a trendy Super Bowl pick earlier in the season. The Bills (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) are just 3-4 over their last seven games and just lost to the Patriots 14-10 as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Bucs (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Falcons 30-17, covering as 11-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3 at most shops, indicating some respected money leaning Bills plus the hook. Road dogs off a loss are 33-22 ATS (60%) this season. Road dogs 3 or less are 20-10 ATS (67%). Josh Allen is 15-8 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career. The total has dipped slightly from 53 to 52.5. Non-conference unders are 41-21 (66%) this season.
More Week 13 Early Moves
Steelers 4 to 3 at Vikings
Raiders-Chiefs Under 50.5 to 48.5
Jets 6.5 to 5.5 vs Saints
Jags 10 to 9.5 at Titans
Seahawks-Texans Under 43.5 to 42
Cardinals -2.5 to -3 vs Rams