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Early NFL Week 13 Sharp Action Report for Browns-Titans, Rams-Cardinals and Patriots-Chargers

December 1, 2020 12:15 AM

The Seahawks took care of business on Monday Night Football, beating the Eagles 23-17. But the Eagles (+ 6.5) stole the show by pulling off one of the most incredible back door covers you will ever see. Philadelphia looked left for dead and trailed 23-9 with just 20-seconds left in the game. But then Carson Wentz threw a Hail Mary touchdown to Richard Rodgers, who caught it one-handed and off a deflection, to make it 23-15. The Eagles then went for two and converted it, making it 23-17 and covering the + 6.5.

It was a back door cover of a lifetime for contrarian bettors who took the Eagles and the points. It was also a big win for the sportsbooks who had heavy liability on the Seahawks as a massive public favorite. One bettor at BetMGM put down $500,000 on the Seahawks -6.5. Imagine how that bettor must feel waking up this morning. A gut-wrenching bad beat.

With the Eagles' miracle cover, primetime dogs improve to 23-13 ATS (64%) on the season. Sharps also nailed the under last night. The total fell from 52 to 49.5 and landed on 40. Primetime unders are now 22-14 ATS (61%) on the season.

Now it's on to Tuesday, which is headlined by a loaded college basketball slate.

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where early money is flowing for NFL Week 13.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

If the playoffs started today both of these teams would be in, with Tennessee the 3-seed and Cleveland the 5-seed. The Browns (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) have won three straight, most recently fending off the Jags 27-25 last week but failing to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Titans (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won two straight and just crushed the Colts 45-26, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to take. On the one hand, both teams are 8-3 so how can you not grab the Browns getting the points? But then again, the Titans have been rolling in recent weeks while Cleveland is barely eking out wins. However, despite this split ticket count, we've seen pros hammer the Titans, pushing Tennessee up from -4 to -5.5. Pros have also targeted the over, driving the total up from 52 to 54. Both teams are profitable to the over, with the Browns 6-5 and the Titans 8-2-1.

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Both of these NFC West rivals are jockeying for playoff positioning and looking to rebound from disappointing losses. The Rams (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) just fell to the 49ers 23-20, losing outright as 5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Patriots 20-17 and failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Wiseguys think this line is a bit low and have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Rams. This respected action has pushed Los Angeles from -1.5 to -2.5. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. If this line reaches 3, expect some buyback on the divisional dog Cardinals getting the key number. Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 49 to 48.5. Both of these teams are profitable to the under, with the Rams 8-3 and the Cardinals 7-3-1. Historically, late season divisional unders have been a smart bet.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

This non-division AFC showdown features one team fighting for their playoff life and the other totally out of it and looking to secure a high draft pick. The Patriots (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) kept their faint postseason hopes alive last week with a 20-17 win over the Cardinals, winning outright as a 1-point home dog. Meanwhile, the Chargers (3-8 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) just fell to the Bills 27-17, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. Los Angeles is 1-4 in their last five games while the Patriots are 3-1 over their last four games. This line opened with the Chargers listed as 2.5-point home favorites. Pro bettors have pounced on the Patriots getting points, which has dropped the line all the way down to a pick'em. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. Wiseguys have also gotten down on the under as we've seen the total fall from 49 to 47. The Pats are 7-4 to the under this season while the Chargers are 7-4 to the over.

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