Early NFL Week 12 Sharp Report

taylor

 

Bettors are in for a treat today, as we have a loaded Tuesday slate featuring 4 NBA games, 3 NHL games, 2 College Football games and 30 College Basketball games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.


In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 12...
 
 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
 
This non-conference showdown features two teams with postseason aspirations. The Bucs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) just dominated the Giants 30-10, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) have won three straight and are 6-2 in their last 8 games. Indianapolis just crushed Buffalo 41-15, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 3-point road favorite. Respected money has pounced on the Colts as a home dog, dropping the line from 3 to 2.5. Dogs are 93-70 ATS (57%) this season. Dogs off a blowout win of 20 points are 17-11 ATS (61%) over the past two seasons. The Colts have a rest advantage as Tampa Bay is on a short week having just played on Monday night. The Colts are in a prime teaser spot ( 2.5 to  8.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 
 
 
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
 
Both of these NFC juggernauts are looking to rebound from tough losses. The Rams (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost two straight games, most recently falling to the 49ers 31-10, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Packers (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Vikings 34-31, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. However, this line has fallen from 1.5 to a pick'em. This indicated respected money backing the Rams, who enjoy a rest advantage and are coming off a bye. Sean McVay is 14-7 ATS (67%) off a loss in his career. We've also seen some wiseguy money hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47.5. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (30 degrees) and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 35-16 (69%) this season. 
 
 
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
 
Major NFC North bragging rights are on the line in this Sunday Night Showdown. The Browns (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a 13-10 win over the Lions, although Cleveland failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) just edged the Bears 16-13, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 5-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the road dog Browns, dropping Cleveland from  5 to  4. Road dogs are 62-36 ATS (63%) this season, with road dogs  7 or less a sparkling 51-19 ATS (73%). Primetime dogs are 22-11 ATS (67%). Sharps have also sided with the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. This is another "windy under" system match, as the forecast calls for high 30s with 10-15 MPH winds. Late season divisional unders are roughly 56% the last decade. 
 
 
More Week 12 Moves
 
Washington  1.5 to -1 vs Seahawks
49ers -2.5 to -3 vs Vikings
Panthers -1 to -2 at Dolphins
Bears-Lions Under 42.5 to 41.5
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