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Early NFL Week 12 Sharp Action Report for Chargers-Bills, Cardinals-Patriots and 49ers-Rams

November 23, 2020 11:41 PM

The Rams (+ 4) upset the Buccaneers 27-24 on Monday Night Football, cashing as + 180 dogs on the moneyline. Tampa Bay opened as a 3.5-point home favorite and early action pushed the line up to -4.5. Once the hook was available, we saw some buyback hit Los Angeles, driving the line back down to 4 where it closed. With the Rams covering, primetime dogs improve to 22-12 ATS (65%) on the season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are now 39-24 ATS (62%). 

Joes beat Pros when it came to last night's total. The public was on the over, yet we saw smart under money drop the line from 48.5 to 47.5. The total landed on 51, handing over bettors a win. 

For an updated breakdown of early NFL and NCAAF line moves for this week, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where early money is flowing for NFL Week 12.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

This non-division, conference showdown looks lopsided on paper. The Chargers (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) are tied for the 4th-worst record in the AFC while the Bills (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) are tied for the 3rd-best. The Chargers snapped a three-game losing skid last week, beating the Jets 34-28 but failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills had their three-game winning streak come to an end their last time out when they lost to the Cardinals 32-30 on a last-second Hail Mary, although they managed to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public says give me Bills Mafia off a bye against an inferior team. However, despite the majority of tickets laying the points with Buffalo, we've seen this line tumble from -6 to -5.5. This signals some respected money coming in on Justin Herbert and the Chargers, causing reverse line movement in their favor. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 39-24 ATS (62%) this season. We've also seen a barrage of money hit this over, pushing the total up from 51.5 to 54.5. Both teams have been excellent to the over this season. Los Angeles is 7-3 and Buffalo is 8-2.   

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots

This non-conference matchup features a pair of teams looking to bounce back from disappointing losses. The Cardinals (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) have lost two of their last three games, most recently falling to the Seahawks 28-21 last Thursday night, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) saw their two-game win streak come to an end last week, losing to the Texans 27-20 as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public has given up on New England and is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. However, every time the oddsmakers move this line from Cardinals -2.5 to -3, they've been getting hit with Patriots buyback getting the key number of + 3, dropping the line back down to 2.5. The Patriots have value as a buy-low short contrarian home dog. We've also seen a steady diet of over money hit the market, driving the total up from 48 to 49.5. This rise is intriguing because both teams have actually been profitable to the under, with the Cardinals 6-3-1 and Patriots 6-4. Weather shouldn't be an issue in this one. The forecast calls for high 40s, clear skies and little to no wind, perfect football conditions. 

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

These NFC West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Saints 27-13 and failing to cover as 9.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won two in a row and just posted a huge upset win over the Bucs on Monday Night Football, winning 27-24 as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is more than happy to fade the struggling 49ers and lay the points with the Rams after an impressive primetime. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen pros buy low on the 49ers, dropping the line down from 7 to 6.5. San Francisco has value as a divisional dog (31-24 ATS, 56% this season). San Francisco also has a big rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and the Rams are on a short week having played Monday night. The Cowboys (+ 7, beat Vikings 31-28 in Week 11) and Dolphins (+ 3.5, beat Rams 28-17 in Week 8) both covered in this ultimate "rest vs tired" spot earlier this season. Dogs off a bye are 5-3 ATS (62%) this season.  

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