Early NFL Week 11 Sharp Report

bengals

The 49ers upset the Rams 31-10 on Monday Night Football, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. It was a big hit for contrarian bettors and sportsbooks as roughly 85% of bets or more laid the points with Los Angeles. The 49ers were a blueprint play for data-minded bettors: contrarian in a heavily bet game with sharp reverse line movement (4.5 to 3.5). With the 49ers cover, dogs improve to 86-62 (58%) on the season, with primetime dogs an incredible 21-9 ATS (70%). Conference dogs 7 or less are now 47-26 ATS (64%). 

Now we turn our attention to Tuesday, where bettors have 3 NBA games, 11 NHL games, 3 College Football games and 50 College Basketball games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.


In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 11...
 
 
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders
 
Both of these AFC playoff hopefuls are looking to snap two-game losing skids. The Bengals (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) just got waxed by the Browns 41-16, losing outright as 2-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) just got crushed by the Chiefs 41-14, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened at a pick'em. Respected money has gotten down on Cincinnati, pushing the Bengals from a pick to a 1-point road favorite. The Bengals have a big rest advantage as Cincinnati is coming off a bye while Las Vegas played on Sunday night. Favorites off a bye are roughly 56% ATS the decade, with road favorites roughly 64% ATS. 
 
 
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
 
Could this be a possible Super Bowl preview? This non-conference showdown is likely to be the most heavily bet non-primetime game of the week. The Cowboys (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) got back on track last week, demolishing the Falcons 43-3 and easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS) have quietly won three straight, most recently beating the Raiders 41-14 as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is riding the Chiefs at home laying a short spread, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at 2.5 or even dip to 2 at some shops. This signals some wiseguy action on Dallas plus the points. Short road dogs 3 or less are 16-7 ATS (70%) this season. Dogs off a blowout win of 20 points are 6-4 ATS this season and 17-10 ATS (63%) the past two seasons. The Cowboys are in a prime teaser spot ( 2.5 to  8.5), which takes you through the two key numbers of 3 and 7. 
 
 
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
 
This Monday Night Football matchup features the biggest spread of the week. The Giants (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Raiders 23-16, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bucs (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) have hit their roughest past of the season thus far, dropping their last two games. Tampa Bay just fell to Washington 29-19, losing outright as 10-point road favorites. This line opened with the Bucs listed as an 11.5-point home favorite. Some shops even opened higher at Tampa Bay -12.5. Regardless, we've seen sharp money grab the points with the Giants, dropping the line down to 11. New York has a rest advantage as the Giants are coming off a bye while the Bucs played on Sunday. Primetime dogs are 21-9 ATS (70%) this season. Road dogs are 56-33 ATS (63%). Monday Night Football double-digit dogs are 17-4 ATS (81%) over the past decade. 
 
 
More Early Week 10 Moves
Chargers -3 to -4.5 vs Steelers
Cardinals  1 to -2.5 at Seahawks
Packers -2 to -2.5 at Vikings
Panthers -2 to -3 vs Washington
Patriots -6 to -6.5 at Falcons
 
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