Early NFL Week 11 Sharp Action Report for Bengals-Washington, Packers-Colts and Chiefs-Raiders

November 16, 2020 11:58 PM

The Vikings took care of business on Monday Night Football, beating the Bears 19-13 and covering as 3-point favorites. The line opened at Minnesota -2.5 and a combination of early respected money alongside public support pushed the line up to -3.5. But then we saw some buyback hit Chicago getting the hook (+ 3.5), dropping the line back down to 3 at most shops. Chalk ruled out as the Vikings covered for early, middle and late bettors. It was the first MNF win for Kirk Cousins in his career (now 1-9).

Pros managed to cash the under. The public was on the over, yet the line total remained at 44.5. Throughout the week it got down to 43 briefly. Essentially all liability was on the under in a line freeze situation. Primetime unders are now 20-11 (65%) on the season.

With the Vikings covering, it caps off the most profitable week of the season for favorites. After dogs dominated at a 57% ATS clip from Weeks 1 to 9, favorites went 9-5 ATS and 12-2 straight up. Essentially, it was the best week of the season for the public.

Now we turn our attention to a loaded Tuesday slate featuring a trio of MACtion games.

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's action along with early NFL and NCAAF line moves for this weekend, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where early smart money is flowing for NFL Week 11.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team

This non-conference showdown features two cellar dwellers with a combined record of 4-13-1. The Bengals (2-6-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) have been quite profitable to bet on this season, losing at a high rate but managing to cover the vast majority of their games, except for last week when they got crushed by the Steelers 36-10 and failed to cover as 6.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Washington (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) hasn't won or covered much this season. Last week Washington fell to Detroit 30-27, failing to cover as 2.5-point dogs. This line opened at a pick'em. Respected money has come in on Alex Smith at home over visiting rookie Joe Burrow, pushing this line up to Washington -1.5. Washington has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team against a sell-high "good" ATS team. Sharps have hit this over, pushing the total up slightly from 46 to 46.5. The Bengals are 6-3 to the over. Washington is 4-4-1.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

This non-conference grudge match between division leaders is arguably one of the most intriguing games of the week. The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the pesky Jaguars 24-20, although Green Bay failed to cover as big 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three of their last four games, including an impressive 34-17 win over the Titans as 1-point favorites last Thursday Night. This line originally opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public says give me the Packers, yet we've seen a massive adjustment toward Indianapolis, with sharp money flipping the Colts from a dog to 2.5-point favorite. The Colts have value as a contrarian favorite in a "fade the trendy dog" situation. Indianapolis has a rest advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Packers are on regular rest. We've also seen pro money hit this over, pushing the total up from 49 to 51.5.

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

This Sunday Night Football matchup pits a pair of divisional rivals riding prolonged winning streaks. The Chiefs (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) have the 2nd-best record in the NFL and have won four straight, most recently beating the Panthers 33-31 but failing to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Raiders (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) have won three straight and just crushed the Broncos 37-12, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs, who are also rested coming off a bye. However, despite this lopsided support, we've actually seen the line fall from Chiefs -7 to -6.5. Some shops are even down to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Raiders, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Las Vegas has value as a divisional dog and a contrarian play in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 20-11 ATS (65%) this season. The Raiders beat the Chiefs 40-32 five weeks ago as 10.5-point dogs.

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