Early NFL Week 10 Sharp Report

November 8, 2022 12:22 AM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 10...

 

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44.5)

This game will be played at 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday morning in Munich, Germany. The Seahawks (6-3) have won four straight games and just beat the Cardinals 31-21, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bucs (4-5) just snapped a three game losing skid with a 16-13 win over the Rams, pushing as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Bucs, steaming Tampa Bay up from -1.5 to -2.5. The Bucs are only receiving 47% of bets but 67% of money, signaling some contrarian favorite value with a low bets, higher dollars sharp discrepancy. If the public piles on Seattle throughout the week this could also turn into a fade the trendy dog system match on Tampa Bay. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46 to 44.5. The Bucs are 7-2 to the under this season. 

 

Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5, 40)

The Texans (1-6-1) own the worst record in the NFL and just lost to the Eagles 29-17 but covered as 14-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Giants (6-2) are coming off a bye and just fell to the Seahawks 27-13 their last time out, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Giants listed as a 6-point home favorite. Wiseguys have laid the chalk with the New York, driving the G-Men up from -6 to -6.5. Favorites off a bye, like the Giants, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade, including 4-3 ATS this season. The Giants will likely be a popular teaser play as well, moving down from -6.5 to -0.5, which passes through the key number of 3. Pros have also hit the over, driving the total up from 38 to 40. The over is getting 71% of bets but 93% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. 

 

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-4, 48.5)

The Browns (3-5) are coming off a bye and just snapped a 4-game losing skid with a 32-13 win over the Bengals, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (6-3) have won three straight games and just edged the Bears 35-32 but failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Dolphins at home. However, despite receiving 73% of bets we've seen Miami fall from -5.5 to -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Browns, with pros grabbing the points. Cleveland is only receiving 27% of bets but 71% of money, a notable sharp discrepancy. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 52-28 ATS (65%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Browns, are 57-39 ATS (59%). Sharps have also sided with the over, steaming the total up from 46.5 to 48.5. The over is receiving 76% of bets but 96% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Jets +10 at Bills.  ​​​View more picks.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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