Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 10...
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44.5)
This game will be played at 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday morning in Munich, Germany. The Seahawks (6-3) have won four straight games and just beat the Cardinals 31-21, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bucs (4-5) just snapped a three game losing skid with a 16-13 win over the Rams, pushing as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Bucs, steaming Tampa Bay up from -1.5 to -2.5. The Bucs are only receiving 47% of bets but 67% of money, signaling some contrarian favorite value with a low bets, higher dollars sharp discrepancy. If the public piles on Seattle throughout the week this could also turn into a fade the trendy dog system match on Tampa Bay. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46 to 44.5. The Bucs are 7-2 to the under this season.
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5, 40)
The Texans (1-6-1) own the worst record in the NFL and just lost to the Eagles 29-17 but covered as 14-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Giants (6-2) are coming off a bye and just fell to the Seahawks 27-13 their last time out, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Giants listed as a 6-point home favorite. Wiseguys have laid the chalk with the New York, driving the G-Men up from -6 to -6.5. Favorites off a bye, like the Giants, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade, including 4-3 ATS this season. The Giants will likely be a popular teaser play as well, moving down from -6.5 to -0.5, which passes through the key number of 3. Pros have also hit the over, driving the total up from 38 to 40. The over is getting 71% of bets but 93% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-4, 48.5)
The Browns (3-5) are coming off a bye and just snapped a 4-game losing skid with a 32-13 win over the Bengals, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (6-3) have won three straight games and just edged the Bears 35-32 but failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Dolphins at home. However, despite receiving 73% of bets we've seen Miami fall from -5.5 to -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Browns, with pros grabbing the points. Cleveland is only receiving 27% of bets but 71% of money, a notable sharp discrepancy. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 52-28 ATS (65%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Browns, are 57-39 ATS (59%). Sharps have also sided with the over, steaming the total up from 46.5 to 48.5. The over is receiving 76% of bets but 96% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy.