Early NFL Week 10 Sharp Report



The Steelers edged the Bears 29-27 on Monday Night Football, although Chicago was able to cover the spread as a 7-point road dog. With the cover, dogs improve to 78-57 ATS (58%) on the season, with road dogs 51-30 ATS (63%) and primetime dogs 19-8 ATS (70%). 

The other big Monday betting news came out of the state of New York, which awarded online licenses to 9 sportsbooks. The following books made the cut: FanDuel, Bally Bet, BetMGM, DraftKings, Rush Street Interactive, Caesars, WynnBet, Resorts World and Points Bet. New York is expected to launch legal online sports betting in January or February of 2022, just in time for the Super Bowl. New York is home to 20 million people, which makes the Empire State the 4th largest in the country behind only California, Texas and Florida. Due to its sheer size and plethora of pro and college teams, New York is on the cusp of becoming one of the biggest legal betting markets in the country. 

Now we turn our attention to Tuesday, where bettors have 3 NBA games, 10 NHL games and 3 College Football games. Today also marks the beginning of the College Hoops seasons, with 70 games on tap for Tuesday. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 10...
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Both of these AFC non-division foes are "in the hunt" when it comes to the playoff conversation. The Browns (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bengals 41-16 last week, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three straight and just waxed the Panthers 24-6, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on the Browns, dropping Cleveland from  3 to  1. Short road dogs  3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%) this season. Dogs off a blowout win of 20-points or more are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past two seasons. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 44.5 to 45.5. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
Both of these NFC non-division opponents are coming off bye weeks. The Bucs (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 36-27 loss to the Saints, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Tampa Bay. On the other hand, Washington (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS) has lost four straight games, most recently falling to the Broncos 17-10 and failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. After an early lookahead line listed the Bucs as a 7.5-point road favorite, we've seen respected money rush to the window to back Tampa Day, driving this line up to Bucs -9.5 or even -10 at some shops. Favorites off a bye are roughly 57% ATS the past decade with road favorites off a bye roughly 65% ATS. One glaring advantage for Tampa Bay is their offensive firepower. Tom Brady and the Bucs are averaging 32.5 PPG on offense while Washington is averaging just 19.5 PPG. 
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
This Sunday Night showdown features a pair of division rivals battling for first place in the AFC West. The Chiefs (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, most recently edging the Packers 13-7 but failing to cover as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just fell to the Giants 23-16, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. The loss snapped a two-game win streak for Vegas. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Kansas City, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement targeting the Raiders at the key number of  3. Conference dogs  7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) this season. Primetime dogs are 19-8 ATS (70%). The Raiders also have value as a contrarian divisional dog in a heavily bet game. The Chiefs are just 9-16 ATS (36%) since winning the Super Bowl. 
More Week 10 Moves
Ravens-Dolphins Under 48 to 46.5
Falcons-Cowboys Over 52 to 54.5
Vikings 3 to 2.5 at Chargers
Broncos -1.5 to -2.5 vs Eagles
Seahawks 5 to 4 at Packers
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