Early NFL Divisional Round Sharp Report


Favorites continued their torrid start to the NFL Playoffs on Monday Night, as the Rams (-3.5) dominated the Cardinals 34-11. Favorites are now 5-1 ATS this postseason. Unders improve to 4-2. 

With Arizona being eliminated, we are down to 8 teams in the NFL playoffs. Here are the updated Super Bowl odds at BetMGM. 

Packers 375

Chiefs 400

Bills, Bucs 550

Rams 800

Titans  850

49ers 1000

Bengals 1200

Today bettors have a loaded slate to choose from including 2 NBA games, 7 NHL games and 30 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for several Divisional Round matchups...

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

The 4-seed Bengals (11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS) are 4-1 over their last five games and just beat the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 1-seed Titans (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) are coming off a bye week after finishing off the regular season with three straight wins. 

This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money seems to be laying the points with the Titans as we've seen Tennessee jump up from -3 to -3.5. Now that the hook is available, the Bengals offer value as a contrarian inflated dog. Joe Burrow is 10-7 ATS in his career as a dog. Favorites off a bye in the Divisional Round are just 28-38 ATS (42%) since 2004. Both teams are giving up roughly 21 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where the Bengals are averaging 27 PPG compared to the Titans averaging 24 PPG. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 46.5 to 47. The forecast calls for mid 30s with little to no wind. 

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

The 6-seed 49ers (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS) pulled off the only upset on Wild Card Weekend, taking down the Cowboys 23-17 as 3.5-point road dogs. Now they travel to Green Bay to face the 1-seed Packers (13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS). 

This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early money poured in on the Packers, driving this line up to 5.5. The Packers steam might have something to do with the 49ers injury report. Defensive stars Fred Warner and Nick Bosa both left the Dallas game with injuries and are questionable. The Packers are the most lopsided play of the weekend, with roughly 70% of bets laying the points. Green Bay will be a popular teaser as well, dropping the line down to basically a pick'em. 

If this line reaches the key number of 6, expect some 49ers buyback. Kyle Shanahan is 26-18 ATS (59%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy G is 14-4 ATS (78%) as a dog. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 47.5. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures in the low teens and 10 MPH winds. 

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Both of these Super Bowl hopefuls are coming off Wild Card Weekend blowout wins. The 3-seed Bills (12-6 SU, 10-6-2 ATS) just dominated the Patriots 47-17, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the 2-seed Chiefs (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) just crushed the Steelers 42-21, covering as 11.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 2-point home favorite. We've seen this line tick up to Chiefs -2.5 at some shops, signaling some liability on the home team. The movement for this game will be fascinating over the next few days. On the one hand, how can you pass up Patrick Mahomes at home laying less than 3-points? On the other hand, how do you pass up the red-hot Bills getting points? If this line reaches 3, expect some buyback on the Bills getting the key number. Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS (64%) in his career as a dog. The Bills are also in a teaser spot ( 2.5 to 8.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. Pros seem to expect a high scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 53 to 55. The forecast at Arrowhead calls for mid 30s with mild 5 MPH winds. These teams met back in Week 5 and Buffalo upset the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead. 

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A Numbers Game: Always compare odds with games behind, remaining schedule, and strength of schedule. i.e. Braves at +300 offer value just 1 game behind the Mets.

The Lombardi Line: It may be a good time to buy low on NFL teams that have the talent, but haven't executed in the first three weeks.

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Amal Shah: Oklahoma / TCU OVER 69

Danny Burke: Texans / Chargers UNDER 45

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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