Early College Football Week 9 Sharp Report: Pros eyeing UTSA-FAU, Northwestern-Iowa and Ole Miss-Vandy

October 28, 2020 02:54 AM

Last night the Dodgers (-121) beat the Rays 3-1 in Game 6 to win their first World Series title since 1988. It was a tough beat for both Rays fans and bettors. Tampa received sharp line movement, plummeting from + 130 to + 111 behind an overload of respected action. But it was all for naught as the Los Angeles chalk proved victorious. Sharps were able to cash the under, though. It opened at 8.5, dipped to 8 and closed at 8.5 with -115 under juice. Essentially all liability was on the under and cashed without a sweat.

The Dodgers cashed as -200 series favorites. Before the series, the Dodgers were + 350 to win in exactly six games (4-2). Corey Seager took home the MVP award. He was + 750 to win before the series started.

The elephant in the room and the gut punch to Rays bettors and fans was the fact that manager Kevin Cash pulled Blake Snell in the 6th inning with Tampa up 1-0. Snell was absolutely dealing at that point and had only thrown 73 pitches. Snell had struck out 9 and only given up 2 hits, yet Cash yanked him for Nick Anderson, who promptly gave up two runs and totally changed the momentum in the game.

For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where early smart money is flowing for this weekend's College Football slate.

Saturday 12 p.m. ET: UTSA (4-3) at Florida Atlantic (1-1)

UTSA snapped a 3-game losing skid last week, beating Louisiana Tech 27-26 as 2.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Florida Atlantic just fell to Marshall 20-9, although they covered as big 19.5-point dogs. UTSA is averaging 27 PPG on offense and giving up 28 PPG on defense. FAU is only averaging 15 PPG on offense and 19 PPG on defense. This Conference USA showdown opened with FAU listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Pro money has jumped on the dog plus the points, dropping UTSA from + 6.5 to + 5.5. Some books are even down to 5. UTSA has value as a conference road dog with a line move and a dog with a low total. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47.5.

Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET: Northwestern (1-0) at Iowa (0-1)

The Big Ten is back and this matchup features two teams coming off opposite debut performances. Northwestern waxed Maryland 43-3, easily covering as 13-point favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa fell to Purdue 24-20, losing straight up as 3.5-point road favorites. Normally, value minded sharps would look to buy low on Iowa and sell high on Northwestern in this spot. However, after opening with Iowa listed as a 3-point home favorite, we've seen this line fall to 2.5. This signals respected action hitting Northwestern at the key number of + 3, causing line movement in their favor. The Wildcats have value as a conference road dog and a short road dog + 4 or less (54% ATS over the last decade). Keep an eye on the weather in this one. The forecast calls for 20 MPH winds. The total is 46.

Saturday 4 p.m. ET: Mississippi (1-4) at Vanderbilt (0-3)

Both of these SEC teams are off to terrible starts and are desperate for a win. Mississippi has lost three straight and just fell to Auburn 35-28, failing to cover as 3.5-point dogs. Similarly, Vanderbilt has lost all three of their games this season and just got waxed by South Carolina 41-7, not even coming close to covering as 14-point dogs. Ole Miss is being outscored by their opponents by an average margin 45-35, Vandy is being outscored 33-8. This line opened with Ole Miss listed as a hefty 18-point road favorite. The public sees a get right spot with the Rebels and has no problem laying the big number. However, we've seen sharp money drop Vandy down from + 18 to + 17. Some books are down to 16.5. Vandy has value as a double-digit conference dog with a line move in their favor.

More line moves

UAB -10 to -12 at La Tech

Va Tech -3 to -3.5 at Louisville

Charlotte + 11 to + 9.5 at Duke

Georgia State + 3 to + 2.5 vs Coastal Carolina

Georgia-Kentucky Under 44 to 42.5

Houston + 3 to + 2.5 vs Central Florida

Texas A&M -11 to -12 vs Arkansas

Nevada -13 to -14 at UNLV

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