Early CFP Semifinals Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 13 NBA games, 4 NHL games and 50 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the early smart money is flowing for the CFP Semifinal matchups on New Year's Eve...
3:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati vs Alabama
This is the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and it will be played at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Cincinnati (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) enters undefeated and ranked 4th. The Bearcats just beat Houston 35-20 in the ACC Championship game, covering as 10.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, top-ranked Alabama (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS) has won seven straight and just upset Georgia 41-24 in the SEC Championship game, winning outright as 6-point dogs. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 13.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is hammering the Crimson Tide after their big win over Georgia, with 81% of bets and 87% of money laying the points with Alabama at BetMGM. This lopsided support has pushed Alabama to -14 at some shops. Cincinnati has value as a contrarian Bowl dog with an inflated line. Betting against the public is a smart strategy this time of year as every Bowl Game is extremely heavily bet. 
7:30 p.m. ET: Georgia vs Michigan
This is the Capital One Orange Bowl and it will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, home of the Dolphins. Georgia (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) enters as the 3-seed and just suffered their first loss of the season in the SEC Championship game, falling to Alabama 41-24 as 6-point favorites. On the flip side, 2-seed Michigan (12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS) has won five straight and just beat Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship game, easily covering as 12-point favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 7.5-point favorite. The public is down on Georgia after getting routed by Alabama and happy to take the points with red-hot Michigan. At BetMGM, 77% of bets and 80% of dollars are on the Wolverines plus the points. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has remained frozen at -7.5 and even inched to -8 at some shops, signaling wiseguy contrarian money fading the trendy dog. Respected money has also hit the over, raising the total from 43 to 44.5. The over is getting 82% of bet and 84% of money at BetMGM. 
Odds to win the National Championship at BetMGM
Alabama  120
Georgia  135
Michigan  750
Cincinnati  1400
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