Early CFP National Championship Sharp Report

georgia

Today bettors have a full slate of action to choose from, including 5 NBA games, 8 NHL games, the Texas Bowl and a full College Basketball board. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.


In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for the College Football National Championship game...
 
 
 8 p.m. ET: Monday January 10 
 
Georgia vs Alabama
 
The two best teams in College Football face off for the championship trophy. The game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts. Georgia (13-1, 9-5 ATS) is ranked 3rd and just crushed Michigan 34-11 in the CFP semifinals, easily covering as 7.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Alabama (13-1 SU, 8-6 ATS) is ranked 1st and just dismissed Cincinnati 27-6 in the semifinals, covering as 13-point favorites. 
 
This line opened with Georgia listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public can't believe Alabama is a dog and they're rushing to the window to back the Crimson Tide plus the points. At BetMGM, 66% of bets are on Alabama, however we've seen this line move further toward Georgia -2.5 to -3. This signals some sharp reverse line movement laying the points with the Bulldogs. 
 
Essentially, the public is all over the trendy dog Crimson Tide but pros are backing the contrarian favorite Bulldogs, who are only receiving 34% of bets but 47% of dollars, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. Georgia appears to be in the same spot against Alabama as they were last week against Michigan: an unpopular favorite with either a line freeze or reverse line move in their favor.
 
This is a revenge game for Georgia, who lost to Alabama 41-24 in the SEC Championship game, losing outright as 6-point favorites. 
 
The progression of the line over the next week will be interesting. Right now, Alabama is  3 with -115 juice at most shops, signaling a possible fall back to 2.5. In other words, if you're looking to back Georgia, you may just wait it out and get back below the key number of 3. Conversely, Alabama bettors would be wise to grab the  3 before it falls back down. 
 
The total hasn't budged off the opener of 52.5. Currently 60% of  bets and 81% of dollars are taking the over at BetMGM. 
 
Georgia is a -145 favorite on the moneyline and Alabama a 125 dog. Caesar's in New Orleans reported a $300,000 bet on the Alabama moneyline 125 on Monday. 
 
 
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