Early CFB Week 9 Sharp Report

wisky

 

Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from, including Game 2 of the World Series, 10 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the early action is flowing for Week 9 of the College Football season...

 

12 p.m. ET: Iowa at Wisconsin

This Big Ten showdown is the most heavily bet early game on the board. Iowa (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is ranked 9th in the country and is coming off a bye. The Hawkeyes just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Purdue 24-7 as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) was left for dead after starting the season 1-3. But now the Badgers have won three straight, including a 30-13 win over Purdue last week, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. If Iowa is the better team and ranked, then why are they getting points? The public is rushing to the window to grab Iowa, yet we've seen the line stay at Wisconsin -3 or even -3.5 at some shops. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" liability on contrarian favorite Wisconsin. We could also be looking at a low scoring game. The total has fallen from 37 to 36.5. Iowa is 5-2 to the under. Wisconsin is 4-3 to the under. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Auburn

This primetime matchup features a pair of ranked SEC rivals battling for conference supremacy. Ole Miss (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is ranked 10th in the country and has won three straight games, most recently beating LSU 31-17, covering as 9-point home favorites. On the flip side, Auburn (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 18th and just crushed Arkansas 38-23, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is jumping all over Ole Miss as a dog due to their higher ranking and better record. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Auburn move from -1 to -3. This indicates respected money laying the points with Auburn. Auburn is also coming off a bye. Ranked home favorites off a bye are roughly 59% ATS the past decade. Both teams can put up points (Ole Miss 41.9 PPG and Auburn 35.4 PPG). The difference comes on defense, where Ole Miss is allowing 28.3 PPG and Auburn just 19.7 PPG. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Penn State at Ohio State

This Big Ten primetime clash features two rivals trending in opposite directions. Penn State (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 20th in the country and has lost two straight, most recently falling to unranked Illinois 20-18 in a 9 OT thriller, losing outright as 24.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio State (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has won five straight and is ranked 5th. The Buckeyes just crushed Indiana 54-7, easily covering as 21-point home favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 17-point home favorite. Pros and Joes aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're both laying the points with red-hot Ohio State, steaming the Buckeyes up from -17 to -18.5. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. Both teams have stellar defenses (PSU allows 14.71 PPG and OSU 18.57 PPG). The big difference comes on offense, where Ohio State is averaging 49.29 PPG and Penn State just 26.86. 

 

More Week 9 Moves

Michigan -3.5 to -4.5 at Michigan State

Colorado  26.5 to  24 at Oregon

Miami  11.5 to  9 at Pittsburgh

Buffalo -12.5 to -13.5 vs Bowling Green

Oklahoma -19 to -20 vs Texas Tech

Baylor -2 to -3 vs Texas

Maryland -3 to -5.5 vs Indiana

Utah -4.5 to -6.5 vs UCLA

Georgia Tech -3 to -4 vs Virginia Tech

 

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