Early AFC/NFC Conference Championship Sharp Report

January 22, 2023 11:40 PM
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In the meantime, let's examine where early money is leaning for the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games...

 

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 45.5)

The 49ers (15-4) just took down the Cowboys 19-12 in the Divisional Round, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (15-3) just blew out the Giants 38-7 in the Divisional Round, easily covering as 8-point home favorites. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money seems to think this opener was a bit short and pros have laid the chalk with the Eagles, steaming Philadelphia up from -1.5 to -2.5. Currently 83% of bets and 79% of money are laying the points with the Eagles. Philadelphia enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having played on Saturday while the 49ers played on Sunday. Conference Championship favorites are 26-12 (68%) straight up since 2004. It will be interesting to see if this line rises to -3, at which point there would likely be buyback on San Francisco getting the key number of +3. As it stands now, the 49ers are an attractive teaser play (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers. Kyle Shanahan is 29-19 ATS (60%) as a dog in his career. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 45.5. Currently 61% of bets are taking the under. Unders went a perfect 4-0 in the Divisional Round.

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 47.5)

The Bengals (14-4) just upset the Bills 27-10 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (15-3) just held off the Jags 27-20 in the Divisional Round but failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as high as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on the Bengals getting points, dropping the line down to Chiefs -1. Currently 74% of bets and 83% of money is backing the Bengals plus the points. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past five postseasons. Joe Burrow is 16-7 ATS (70%) as a dog in his career. The Bengals have won three-straight games against the Chiefs. One big injury to monitor this week is the status of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, who suffered an ankle injury against the Jags and stayed in the game but looked visibly hobbled. The Chiefs enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having played on Saturday while the Bengals played on Sunday. Pros have also hit the under. The total opened as high as 50 and has quickly fallen down to 47.5. The early forecast calls for 15 degree weather with 15 MPH winds. Currently 33% of bets but 49% of money is backing the under. The Bengals are 10-7-1 to the under, including 6-3-1 to the under on the road. Kansas City is 10-8 to the under, including 7-2 to the under at home.

 

Updated Super Bowl Odds at DraftKings

Chiefs +250

Bengals +265

Eagles +265

49ers +320

 

 

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Live Bet Sunday: The majority of the handle for the Super Bowl will come relatively late, ramping up a few days before the game. Expect this action to alter the money line prices if not the spread. View more tips.

The Lombardi Line: The Chiefs have FOUR rookie DBs with Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, and Bryan Cook. If the Chiefs D focuses on pass rush and leaves the DBs to play man-to-man, the Eagles' pass catchers have the advantage. View more tips.

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