Early AFC and NFC Championship Game Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded Tuesday slate to choose from including 8 NBA games, 8 NHL games and a full College Basketball card. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where early money is leaning for this weekend's  NFL Conference Championship games...


Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

This AFC Championship game kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Bengals (12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS) took down the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites and then upset the Titans 19-16 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) crushed the Steelers 42-21, covering as 11.5-point home favorites, and then outlasted the Bills 42-36, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Chiefs at home after their thrilling win over Buffalo. This lopsided betting has pushed Kansas City from -6.5 to -7. Some shops are flirting with a further move to 7.5. Favorites are 6-4 ATS this postseason. AFC and NFC Championship home favorites ae 17-13 ATS (57%) since 2003. At this point, the Bengals offer buy-low value as a road contrarian dog with an inflated line. There's some familiarity here, with the Bengals upsetting the Chiefs 34-31 in Week 17, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. Cincinnati also has a rest advantage, playing on Saturday afternoon while the Chiefs played Sunday night. 

Sharps have also hit this over, steaming the total from 53.5 to 54.5. AFC and NFC Championship overs are 22-11 (67%) since 2003. The early forecast calls for low 40s with low 5 MPH winds and clear skies. Kansas City is 7-0 to the over their last seven games. 


San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

This NFC Championship game takes place at 6:40 p.m. ET on Sunday. The 49ers (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) have won outright as dog in both postseason games thus far, upsetting Dallas 23-17 as 3.5-point dogs and then shocking the Packers 13-10 as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) beat the Cardinals 34-11 in their playoff opener, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites, and then upset the defending champion Bucs 30-27 as 2.5-point road dogs. 

This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Rams on a short number at home. However, all the juice is leaning on the 49ers ( 3.5 at -120). This signals liability on San Francisco plus the hook, along with a possible fall down from 3.5 to 3. Playoff divisional dogs are 8-6 ATS (57%) over the past decade. Kyle Shanahan is 27-18 ATS (60%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy G is 15-4 ATS (79%) as a dog. The 49ers are 2-0 against the Rams this season, winning 31-10 in Week 10 and 27-24 in Week 18. The 49ers have a rest advantage, playing on Saturday while the Rams played on Sunday. 

We could be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total has been bet down from 47 to 46 despite a majority of public bettors taking the over. When the total falls at least a half-point in the playoffs, the under is 35-30 (54%) over the past decade. 

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