Doubleheader trend stays hot even with Nats' ace on mound

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

August 8, 2018 12:14 AM

Ender’s game moves the MLB twinbill trend to 19-4 this season! Inciarte wins it with a ninth-inning, two-run triple. Plus more from the bases…the Aces…and the faces favored to win this week’s PGA Championship…right now in VSiN City. 

NL Tuesday: Twinbill trend now 19-4 after a whopping “plus 200” winner on the Braves over the Nats

It’s not supposed to be this easy. Especially with big underdogs! But the simple strategy of asking the loser of the first game of a doubleheader to come back and win game two is now 19-4 this season after Atlanta beat Washington 3-1 late Tuesday. Ender Inciarte broke a 1-all tie in the top of the ninth inning with a two-run triple. Because pricey Max Scherzer was pitching the nightcap for the Nats, the Braves returned in the vicinity of plus 200 depending on where you shop. 

Sam Panayotovich of VSiN alerted our audience to this trend several winners ago. Even hotter since gaining attention, which doesn’t often happen. Sam has also been providing write-ups on game days for New York Post readers. Don’t forget that VSiN provides a “tip” of the day, and a “pick” of the day seven times weekly. Click here for links to the latest contributions

Atlanta-Washington was an important DH in the NL East race. So, let’s run the stats from both games in the order they were played. 

Game 1: Washington (even) 8, Atlanta 3

Total Bases Plus Walks: Atlanta 13, Washington 29

Starting Pitchers: Fried 2 IP, 0 ER, Rodriguez 5 IP, 1 ER

Bullpen: Atlanta 6 IP, 8 ER, Washington 4 IP, 2 ER

Many casual bettors were hoping this would be the Braves' victory. They didn’t want to have to fade Scherzer later! Courage, people. Sometimes those big dogs fetch you a winning ticket. Here it was the cheap host winning a blowout. You can see that Washington doubled Atlanta in runs and "total bases plus walks." Ugly afternoon for the Braves bullpen by committee. Washington would temporarily nudge closer to the playoff picture. 

Game 2: Atlanta (plus 200) 3, Washington 1 

Total Bases Plus Walks: Atlanta 14, Washington 12

Starting Pitchers: Newcomb 6 IP, 1 ER, Scherzer 7 IP, 1 ER

Bullpen: Atlanta 3 IP, 0 ER, Washington 2 IP, 2 ER

As you know, tied in the ninth until Inciarte connected. Nail-biter stats. Sean Newcomb held his own against Scherzer. Nats wish they could have saved some of those extra runs from the afternoon for crunch time here. A split does Washington no good with time slowly running out in the season.  

Atlanta is now 61-49 on the season. Washington 58-55. Nats are 4.5 games behind the Braves, and also have to chase down the Phillies to reach the postseason. Will be tough to snare a wild-card spot given solid records across the NL spectrum. 

One other early finisher matching NL teams with winning records…

Pittsburgh (pick-em) 10, Colorado 2

Total Bases Plus Walks: Pittsburgh 22, Colorado 13

Starting Pitchers: Taillon 9 IP, 2 ER, Bettis 4.2 IP, 9 ER

Bullpen: Pittsburgh 0 IP, 0 ER, Colorado 4.1 IP, 1 ER

Pittsburgh was up 5-0 after four innings, and 10-0 after five innings. Side and total already determined by the midway point of the game. You can guess that the Pirates clustered their bases very effectively. That final score overstates their overall offensive dominance on the evening. Still probably too late to matter for the Pirates, who are 58-56 on the season. Colorado’s one of the teams Washington will chase for a Wildcard. Rockies fall to 60-53. 

Other early finishers in the NL Tuesday…

*St. Louis (-140) won at Miami 3-2. Cards up to 59-55 to hang around a bit longer. At least the new manager didn’t make things worse. 

*San Diego (plus 170) won at Milwaukee 11-5. Brewers have been fairly generic for a while. Many expected they would turn into a pumpkin once again. Milwaukee is 30-31 since starting the season 35-20. Now 10-14 over the last 24 games. Can still see the Cubs through the windshield, 2.5 games back after tonight. 

MLB Tuesday: Houston wins again in San Francisco; Felix no longer a king in Seattle

Another pitchers’ duel in this series. But Houston was much more dominant than the 2-1 final score made it seem. Check out the offensive stats in this one. 

Houston (even) 2, San Francisco 1 

Total Bases Plus Walks: Houston 20, San Francisco 10

Starting Pitchers: Keuchel 6 IP, 1 ER, Bumgarner 7 IP, 0 ER

Bullpen: Houston 3 IP, 0 ER, San Francisco 2 IP, 2 ER

Somehow, Houston could only get two runs out of three walks, four singles, two doubles, two triples and a home run. Dividing TB plus W by four provides a surprisingly accurate “runs created” estimate. Try it for the two leagues right now and you’ll be shocked at how close that gets you. That rudimentary formula says 5 to 2.5 was a more reasonable scoring estimate. 

Houston moves to 73-42, as fans of both the A’s and Mariners curse the Giants. San Francisco falls to 57-59, failing to turn the return of Madison Bumgarner into a catalyst.

In other AL and IL early finishers involving playoff contenders…

*Boston (pick-em) won at Toronto 10-7 in 10 innings. Was 5-all after nine. Boston is the first MLB team to reach 80 wins this season. An 80-34 record for the Red Sox is on pace for 114 victories. Amazing production and consistency. With 48 games left…

Boston “needs”:

10-38 to finish 90-72

20-28 to finish 100-62

25-23 to finish 105-57

30-18 to finish 110-52

Sox may have such a comfortable lead for the division and home field throughout the playoffs that they'll coast home in the final weeks. The market had Boston’s “Regular Season Win Total” around 92 back in March. A 13-35 finish will cash Over tickets. 

*Minnesota (plus 230) beat Cleveland 3-2. Cleveland still very safe in the lousy AL Central. Indians fall to 62-50. 

*Texas (even) beat Seattle 11-4. Felix Hernandez struggled. Seven earned runs allowed in six innings with only two strikeouts. His ERA is 5.73 this season. Throwing home games in a pitchers’ park has helped hide a debacle. Felix’s road ERA rose to 8.88 this evening. Mariners 3-10 in his last 13 starts overall. Seattle falls to 65-49. Any loss to a bad team is painful in such a tight Wildcard race. 

*NY Yankees (-200) won at the Chicago White Sox 4-3 in 13 innings. Almost another no-show loss to a horrible team. Yanks are still a very respectable 70-42, but it’s been awhile since they’ve made opponents cower. 

*The Chicago Cubs (-170) won at Kansas City 5-0. Series has felt like a scrimmage against a Triple A team so far. Cubs now 66-47 for the season. 

WNBA: Las Vegas Aces lose TWICE on the same day!

Tuesday, the WNBA announced that the Aces would have to FORFEIT the game they recently missed in Washington because of airline delays. You’ll recall that Las Vegas didn’t send its players to the arena after a series of misadventures created legitimate concerns about player safety. 

Tough spot for the league. A visiting team can’t “cancel” somebody else’s home game. Not easy to schedule a make-up in these crowded final days. That would place a burden on playoff-bound Washington that was undeserved. 

That news seemed to inspire Las Vegas for three quarters on the road against league power Atlanta. The Dream won the fourth quarter 29-16 to win and vulture a cover.  

Atlanta (-8) 109, Las Vegas 100 

2-point Pct: Las Vegas 50%, Atlanta 60%

3-pointers: Las Vegas 6/14, Atlanta 9/23

Free Throws: Las Vegas 22/30, Atlanta 14/16

Rebounds: Las Vegas 34, Atlanta 29

Turnovers: Las Vegas 11, Atlanta 8

Really bad defense for Las Vegas after the airport fiascos. Here they allowed 109 points (a Dream franchise record) on 60% shooting inside the arc with only eight forced turnovers. That after allowing 109 points to Connecticut on 67% inside the arc and only 10 forced turnovers the other day. 

Airline mishaps robbed the Aces of “a chance” to reach the postseason. This year’s squad isn’t yet a playoff caliber team. As the game ended, the official standings at the league’s website and ESPN had only dropped Las Vegas to 12-16. Should be 12-17 with the forfeit. Only five games left in a 34-game season. 

Atlanta is 19-10, still positioned for a #2 seed behind Seattle. Atlanta is 11-1 ATS its last 12 games. 

Seattle (-12) 94, Indiana 79

2-point Pct: Seattle 57%, Indiana 48%

3-pointers: Seattle 9/23, Indiana 6/15

Free Throws: Seattle 11/17, Indiana 11/11

Rebounds: Seattle 36, Indiana 33

Turnovers: Seattle 9, Indiana 13

Best team in the league visiting the worst. Not a surprising result. Seattle moves to 23-7, while Indiana falls to 5-24. Seattle is 8-1 ATS its last nine games, 12-2-1 ATS its last 15. The market is at least getting closer to properly pricing Seattle and Atlanta, just in time for the playoffs. 

Minnesota (-4) 85, Chicago 64

2-point Pct: Minnesota 52%, Chicago 33%

3-pointers: Minnesota 7/12, Chicago 8/21

Free Throws: Minnesota 10/13, Chicago 10/13

Rebounds: Minnesota 37, Chicago 27

Turnovers: Minnesota 20, Chicago 20

Ugh, 40 combined turnovers! Minnesota sure cranked up the defense in a game that meant a lot to them but nothing to the also-ran Sky. Lynx held their opponent to 33% inside the arc while forcing 20 miscues. Normally you can’t use such simple handicapping approaches (take the team that needs the game over the team that doesn’t) because the market prices “need” aggressively. Not the case here. Minnesota moves to 16-13 in the fight for playoff positioning amongst the eight eventual qualifiers. Chicago falls to 10-19. 

Washington (plus 2) 103, Phoenix 98

2-point Pct: Washington 60%, Phoenix 63%

3-pointers: Washington 11/23, Phoenix 7/26

Free Throws: Washington 18/21, Phoenix 17/18

Rebounds: Washington 27, Phoenix 34

Turnovers: Washington 11, Phoenix 11

Do you think Elena Delle Donne and Brittney Griner get sky high when they square off? Delle Donne scored 30 points on 11 of 15 shooting in Washington’s win. Griner scored 35 on 15 of 25 shooting and added 11 rebounds in Phoenix’s loss. 

Great game matching playoff-bound opponents. Phoenix has lost seven if its last nine games, suggesting it may no longer be a threat. Fatigue may be setting in even though Griner and Diana Taurasi keep posting good numbers. Washington moves to 18-11 with the win. Phoenix falls to 16-14. 

A quick look at our estimated “market” Power Ratings, We use a standard three points for home court advantage. 

87: Seattle 

84: Los Angeles

82: Atlanta, Minnesota, Connecticut, Washington

81: Phoenix

77: Dallas, Las Vegas

75: Chicago

74: New York

72: Indiana

PGA Golf: Not much change in exchange prices; South Point posts head-to-head matchups

Jason Day drew a little global support as we approach golf’s final major of 2018. He’s now a top four threat at the Betfair exchange. Here are numbers as of Tuesday evening. (Click here to see “live” prices as you read).

Current Betfair Exchange Prices

Dustin Johnson: risk $1 to earn $9…risk $9.50 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Rory McIlroy: risk $1 to earn $14…risk $14.50 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Justin Thomas: risk $1 to earn $15…risk $15.50 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Jason Day: risk $1 to earn $19…risk $20 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Brooks Koepka: risk $1 to earn $22…risk $23 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Justin Rose: risk $1 to earn $25…risk $26 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Jordan Spieth: risk $1 to earn $25…risk $26 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Rickie Fowler: risk $1 to earn $25…risk $26 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Jon Rahm: risk $1 to earn $29…risk $31 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Tommy Fleetwood: risk $1 to earn $31…risk $33 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Tiger Woods: risk $1 to earn $33…risk $35 to earn $1 that he won’t win

Francesco Molinari: risk $1 to earn $41…risk $43 to earn $1 that he won’t win

The South Point posted a variety of head-to-head matchups. Here’s a look at some of the studs going against each other. Odds represent prices to have the better tournament.

Dustin Johnson (-155) vs. Rory McIlroy (plus 135)

Dustin Johnson (-165) vs. Justin Thomas (plus 145)

Dustin Johnson (-190) vs. Justin Rose (plus 170)

Dustin Johnson (-190) vs. Jason Day (plus 170)

Dustin Johnson (-230) vs. Brooks Koepka (plus 195)

Rory McIlroy (-170) vs. Brooks Koepka (plus 150)

Rory McIlroy (-150) vs. Justin Rose (plus 130)

Rory McIlroy (-135) vs. Jason Day (plus 115)

Rory McIlroy (-120) vs. Justin Thomas (even)

Tiger Woods (-125) vs. Francesco Molinari (plus 105)

Tiger Woods (-120) vs. Jon Rahm (even)

Tiger Woods (-110) vs. Tommy Fleetwood (-110)

Tiger Woods (-110) vs. Jordan Spieth (-110)

Rickie Fowler (-120) vs. Tiger Woods (even)

If you’re new to golf betting, sharps tend to focus on matchups or exchanges rather than futures prices because they more accurately reflect true odds. Keep that in mind as you consider your options this week.  

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