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Dogs and Unders still have edge through Week 5

Dave Tuley  
VSiN.com senior reporter

October 9, 2017 10:21 PM

LAS VEGAS–We had 12 NFL games on Sunday. Six favorites won and covered. Six underdogs covered and also pulled outright upsets. Six overs. Six unders.

Can you say chop-chop?

In Vegas parlance, that doesn’t mean “hurry up” but splitting the money. Most books still end up winning money in situations like this (thanks to them having the edge on most bets at 11-to-10), but it’s consider a break-even day when they have to pay the electric and TV bills as well as their staff.

Adding in the Patriots’ 19-14 win over the Buccaneers on Thursday after closing as 4-point road favorites and the Vikings' failure to cover as 3.5-point favorites at Chicago on Monday night, favorites finished 7-7 ATS.  Unders led 8-6 on the week with the Vikings-Bears going under.

(Note: We grade our NFL betting results against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that take the average closing lines after everyone has had their chance to set the line from oddsmakers to bookmakers to wiseguys to the public.)

For the season, underdogs lead 42-33-1 ATS while unders have a slight edge on overs at 39-36-2 after Monday night's game.

In the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs on Sunday, favorites went 5-3 ATS. If you’ve been grading ATS results today, your numbers might differ slightly, especially if you’re using lines from a contest such as the Westgate SuperContest or other contests. Here in Vegas, we had two lines that had changes of favorites and I’m grading against the closing lines of Jets -1.5 at the Browns and Dolphins -1.5 vs. the Titans. The Jets were bet to favoritism with late support while the Dolphins became favorites when the books learned Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota was out. The Jets beat the Browns 17-14 while the Dolphins beat the Titans 16-10. The other winning faves were the Bengals (-3) over the Bills 20-16, Eagles (-6.5) over the Cardinals 34-7 and Colts (-1.5) over the 49ers 26-23 in overtime.

The Jaguars pulled the biggest upset of the day with a 30-9 rout of the Steelers as 7.5-point road underdogs and 290 on the money line. The Chargers beat the Giants 27-22 as 3-point underdogs and the Panthers beat the Lions 27-24 as 2-point road dogs.

In the “afternoon games” (4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET kickoffs, though in the 1 o’clock hour here in Vegas), underdogs went 3-0 ATS with all three as outright upsets. The Ravens dominated the Raiders 30-17 as 3-point road underdogs, the Seahawks outlasted the Rams 16-10 as 2-point road dogs and the Packers were rallied by Aaron Rodgers to a 35-31 win over the Cowboys as 2.5-point road dogs.

Underdogs took a 6-5 ATS lead on the day with that sweep, but then the Chiefs beat the Texans 42-34 as 2-point road favorites in the Sunday nighter to put it back at 6-6 ATS.

Unders were 5-3 in the early games with overs winning the afternoon at 2-1. The over 45.5 in the nightcap put over/unders at 6-6 on the day and unders leading 7-6 on the week.

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