This Monday Night Football showdown features a pair of NFC East rivals with 1-1 records, although their public perceptions are vastly different, which may create a buy-low, sell-high opportunity. The Eagles (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) crushed the Falcons 32-6 in the season opener, but then dropped their Week 2 game to the 49ers 17-11, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) are coming off their first victory of the season last week, upsetting the Chargers 20-17 as 3-point road dogs. Essentially, Dallas is hot in the eyes of the public, while the Eagles are cold.
This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to ride with Dak and the Cowboys at home on a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen the line remain frozen at 3.5. In fact, the Eagles 3.5 is being juiced up to -115 to -120, signaling liability on Philadelphia and a possible fall to the key number of 3. Wiseguys seem to be backing the Eagles plus the hook based on the line freeze and juice reverse line movement.
Philadelphia has value as a contrarian road dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 5-3 ATS this season and 33-22 ATS (60 percent) over the past two seasons.
The Eagles also match the best betting system through three weeks: short road dogs 6 or less. They are 14-2 ATS this season and 114-71 ATS (62 percent) the past two seasons. Philadelphia has value as a divisional dog, as the built in familiarity with a common opponent levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 61-46 (57 percent) over the past two seasons. It's also been profitable to fade teams making their home opener in Week 3, like the Cowboys tonight. Over the past decade, fading them is 31-15 ATS (67 percent). Brad Rogers, the head referee, is 32-26 ATS (56 percent) to the road team historically.
The total opened at 51.5 and really hasn't budged at all. Primetime overs are 7-1 this season. Philadelphia is 2-0 to the under this season. Dallas is 1-1.