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Dodgers, Yankees trip after All-Star Break

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

July 25, 2018 10:57 PM

Dodgers and Yankees both lose midweek matinees AND important road series. Plus, two special VSiN announcements! Gaughan Racing has “Gone Racin’”…and one Mississippi, two Mississippi sports betting articles in Thursday’s Biloxi Sun Herald. Details coming up in VSiN City. 

NL Wednesday: Dodgers lose again to drop two of three in Philadelphia, but Nats and Cubs get up off the mat
Great competition this week as top National League contenders go head-to-head. No evidence in these games that anyone is ready to pull away from the pack. Let’s see how Wednesday played out for playoff hopefuls in the senior circuit. 

Philadelphia (plus 120) 7, Los Angeles Dodgers 3 
Total Bases Plus Walks: Los Angeles 15, Philadelphia 19
Starting Pitchers: Buehler 4.2 IP, 5 ER, Arrieta 6 IP, 2 ER
Bullpen: Los Angeles 3.1 IP, 2 ER, Philadelphia 3 IP, 0 ER

Walker Buehler earned some market respect out of the gate. But, he’s now allowed 12 earned runs in his last 10.2 innings to see his ERA balloon up to 3.92. It was easier to visualize LAD storming to a divisional crown before Buehler and Ross Stripling struggled in this series. 

Huge series win for the Phils in terms of proving they can hold their own with an NL elite. Tuesday night should be called a tie for evaluation purposes. Phillies finally won it in 16 innings when LAD ran out of arms. Here the hosts clustered their bases more efficiently thanks to a five-run fifth inning. 

Philadelphia has the superior full-season record at 57-44, compared to 56-46 for Los Angeles. Phils now hold a 1.5 game lead over idle Atlanta in the NL East. Dodgers still a half-game ahead of Arizona in the NL West with both losing. Evidence so far continues to suggest a tight race for at least two of three senior circuit divisions, and the two Wildcard spots.  

Let’s update some season-to-date betting performances today. Philadelphia is now up 13 units in 2018 against money line prices. The Dodgers are down 17.5 units, with little chance of recovering money-wise from a horrific start against steep numbers. (All unit results from the standings page at covers.com). 

Washington (plus 120) 7, Milwaukee 3 
Total Bases Plus Walks: Washington 14, Milwaukee 12
Starting Pitchers: Roark 8 IP, 0 ER, Perralta 6 IP, 7 ER
Bullpen: Washington 1 IP, 3 ER, Milwaukee 3 IP, 0 ER

The low offensive base counts suggested it was one of those double-get away spots that should have stayed Under. Should have been a win of about 3.5 to 3 if you divided those TB plus W totals by four (a rudimentary “runs created” approach that works surprisingly well at the league level). Bases were very efficiently clustered with three different three-run innings. Under bettors’ hopes were dashed when the Brewers hit a meaningless three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth. 

Rare day of sunshine for the Nats within their recent slump. Still under .500 for the season at 50-51. Milwaukee falls to 58-47, now three games behind the Cubs because of the next result. 

Washington is down 19.5 units even with the victory. Milwaukee is up about 9.5 units…it was much better before a recent slump. 

Chicago Cubs (pick-em) 2, Arizona 1 
Total Bases Plus Walks: Arizona 9, Chicago 10
Starting Pitchers: Ray 7 IP, 1 ER, Lester 6 IP, 1 ER
Bullpen: Arizona 1 IP, 0 ER, Chicago 3 IP, 0 ER

Wind was helping the pitchers today, which you could have deduced by that final score. Not much production for either offense. Cubs lucky to steal a win considering they only scored four total runs in the whole series thus far. Conclusion of the four-game set is Thursday afternoon.  

Chicago moves to 59-42, maintaining the best record in the National League. Will any NL team make it to 95 wins this season? Arizona falls to 56-47. 

Cubs are back up half-a-unit this season. Arizona up about six. 

AL and IL Wednesday: Yanks tumble again at Tampa Bay, trends take a day off in Cleveland 
Tampa Bay continued to drive its pitching staff past the suddenly pedestrian New York Yankees. Let’s catch up on that developing market story…and run through three Interleague games that all matched teams with winning records. 

Tampa Bay (plus 150) 3, New York Yankees 2 
Total Bases Plus Walks: New York 9, Tampa Bay 13
Starting Pitchers: Cessa 5.1 IP, 2 ER, Stanek 1 IP, 0 ER
Bullpen: New York 2.2 IP, 1 ER, Tampa Bay 8 IP, 1 ER

Another example of the market treating Tampa Bay’s rotation “gimmick” like dirt whenever a reliever opens a game. THIS IS WORKING! It wasn’t Cessa vs. “a reliever.” It was Cessa vs. a new strategy that’s been thriving, possibly helped by Tampa Bay playing home games in a pitcher’s park. 

Oh, Ryne Stanek has allowed only three earned runs in his last 28 innings…popping in for short stints every time. Total of 36 strikeouts and 10 walks, with no home runs allowed. 

Tampa Bay has won five of its las six at this site against the Yankees, and is 49-38 since starting the season 3-12. Rays have been a playoff caliber team for several weeks, triggered by a surprisingly successful innovation. 

The Yankees are now 14-14 their last 28 games, which is very expensive for bettors because of the high money lines. Full season record is 64-36 at the 100-game mark. Nowhere near time to panic. But, we’re fast approaching a spot where the Yankees are closing to falling out of the playoff brackets behind Seattle and Oakland than they are to Boston at the top of the AL East. 

New York is still up five units for the season. But, it was much higher before that 14-14 cool down. Tampa Bay is up more than eight units…and may continue to be a value team for awhile longer. 

Cleveland (-220) 4, Pittsburgh 0
Total Bases Plus Walks: Pittsburgh 6, Cleveland 15
Starting Pitchers: Taillon 7 IP, 2 ER, Bauer 7 IP, 0 ER
Bullpen: Pittsburgh 1 IP, 2 ER, Cleveland 2 IP, 0 ER

If you’ve been reading the newsletter lately, you know this result busted a couple of recent trends. Rare Under at this site. Overs are still 31-9-3 the last 43 games at Progressive Field. Pirates winning streak ends at 11. Pittsburgh played like they had already accomplished its mission by winning the first two games of the series. Pirates had a plane to catch for a home game Thursday vs. the Mets. Only SIX offensive bases through nine innings. Bauer can be tough to hit even when you aren’t playing a day game after a night game with a plane to catch. 

Cleveland still down around 15.5 units for the season. Money disasters for Cleveland, Washington, and LAD from our Magnificent Seven teams projected to win at least 90 games. Pittsburgh’s recent winning streak nudged the Pirates back into the black. Now up about 2.5 units for 2018. 

Seattle (-145) 3, San Francisco 2
Total Bases Plus Walks: San Francisco 8, Seattle 9
Starting Pitchers: Holland 6 IP, 1 ER, Leake 6.1 IP, 1 ER
Bullpen: San Francisco 2 IP, 1 ER, Seattle 2.2 IP, 0 ER

There were some high scoring afternoon games Wednesday. Just not in the newsletter! Interesting how the low base counts were so prominent in the games that MATTERED. So far, we’ve seen 19-15, 14-12, 10-9, 13-9, 15-6, and 9-8 (with a 19-5 on deck). Great day for fans who love outs and singles. 

A quick two-game split. Seattle moves back to 20 games over .500 at 61-41. San Francisco falls back to one game over .500 at 52-51. Giants are actually closer to first place in their division, just 5.5 games behind the Dodgers. Mariners won’t catch Houston. Still a tight race with Oakland for the second spot in the Wildcard race. 

Surprising Seattle is up close to 16 units this season. Though, a fantastic 27-13 record in one-run games might signal some regression down the stretch. San Francisco is up about seven units despite only being only a game over .500 because of so many underdog cashes. 

Colorado (plus 120) 3, Houston 2
Total Bases Plus Walks: Houston 5, Colorado 19
Starting Pitchers: Morton 6 IP, 1 ER, Gray 7 IP, 1 ER
Bullpen: Houston 2.1 IP, 2 ER, Colorado 2 IP, 0 ER

Unbelievable. The Houston Astros have a fantastic offense. Tonight, they were playing in what’s typically the best hitters’ park in baseball. They got ONE hit! Two runs on one hit (Jose Altuve doubled in a run, then scored later on a fielder’s choice). That after waiting until extra innings to explode in the series opener Tuesday. You don’t often see a team held to five offensive bases in this park. Houston was in position to win anyway until allowing a game-tying sac fly in the bottom of the seventh, then a walk-off home run to Charlie Blackmon in the bottom of the ninth. 

Houston drops to exactly 30 games over .500 at 67-37. Now only plus one betting unit on the season because defending World Champions are rarely value priced. They’d have to be a 115-win team to win much money for backers this season. Colorado is now 54-47, plus about seven units. Rockies just 1.5 games behind the Dodgers, one game behind Arizona in the tight NL West fight.

VSiN News: Gaughan Racing has Gone Racin’ with new NASCAR show debuting Thursday
You regulars know that the VSiN studios are located right by the sports book in the South Point Resort and Casino in Las Vegas. The South Point has a very close relationship with NASCAR. Michael Gaughan owns the South Point. His son Brendan Gaughan races the circuit. With the inaugural South Point 400 coming up in September, VSiN is producing a new hourly show to cover the sport from a betting perspective. 

“Gone Racin’" debuts Thursday at 5 p.m. ET, 2 p.m. here in Las Vegas. It will be hosted by veteran VSiN broadcaster Ron Flatter, along with Brendan Gaughan and Jeff Motley. Special guests on this first show will be legendary team owner Richard Childress, and Point Spread Weekly racing analyst Jeff Cogliandro (who’s having a great season with his matchup selections here at the website). 

Hope you’ll join us Thursday, and all through the build up to the South Point 400!

More VSiN News: Our new partnership with the Biloxi Sun Herald also begins Thursday
So much going on as VSiN continues to set the pace in as the dominant leader in our field. We’re pleased to announce that we’re officially starting our new partnership with the Biloxi Sun Herald Thursday. Legal sports betting is imminent in Mississippi. The Sun Herald wants to make sure its readers are ready!

Brent Musburger will have an article in the Thursday sports section previewing the Southeast Conference football season. VSiN City will provide “tip” articles on Thursdays and Saturdays every week. Alongside Brent Thursday, we’ll take a closer look at betting outlooks for Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Our Saturday article will focus on the New Orleans Saints.

If you’re a sports editor anywhere in the country, VSiN would love the opportunity to help serve your audience with sports betting coverage of the teams in your area. Thanks to all of you residents in New York and New Jersey that have provided such great feedback to our articles in the New York Post. We’re looking forward to meeting more new friends Thursday in The Playground of the South! 

VSiN Business Center
*Click here to subscribe to Point Spread Weekly for just $249.99. That gets you a full calendar year of this must-have digital publication. Great time to purchase because we’re fast approaching the NFL preseason. Subscribers automatically get our 2018 college and pro football previews as well. 

*If you haven’t had a chance to sign up for the FREE subscription to VSiN City, please click here to do so. Subscribers also get links to handy sports betting sheets from the South Point that are very helpful during the baseball grind. 

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