Dodgers World Series Odds Shorten after Acquiring Scherzer and Turner, plus Friday MLB Sharp Report

July 30, 2021 12:06 AM

The MLB Trade Deadline is today at 4 p.m. ET. But we already saw a plethora of trades go down Thursday that are causing big shifts in futures prices across the market. 

The biggest move yesterday saw the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers acquire ace Max Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner from the Nationals for a package of prospects. The Dodgers were already the favorite to win the World Series and saw their odds improve even further from + 400 to + 325 at BetMGM. The Dodgers are now a + 150 favorite to win the NL Pennant.

The Yankees also traded for sluggers Joey Gallo of the Texas Rangers and Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs. New York moved from + 2500 to + 2200 to win the World Series, + 1400 to + 1000 to win the American League and + 1300 to + 1100 to win the AL East. The Red Sox, who acquired Kyle Schwarber from the Nationals, remain a slight -125 favorite to win the AL East, followed by the Rays + 130.

Here are the updated World Series odds heading into today's trade deadline

Dodgers + 325

Astros + 450

White Sox + 650

Padres + 750

Mets, Giants + 1000

Rays, Brewers, Red Sox + 1200

Yankees, Athletics + 2200

Jays + 3000

Braves, Phillies + 5000

Reds + 8000

Now it's on to Fade the Public Friday. Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap, with 15-games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pirtchard from 3 to 5 p.m .ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of Friday night MLB matchups...

7:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (54-49) at New York Mets (54-47)

This non-division showdown features two of the top six teams in the National League going head-to-head. The Reds just took three of four against the Cubs and are now just 4.5-games back of the second Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Mets just dropped three of five against the Braves but still lead the NL East by 3.5-games over the second place Phillies. In tonight's opener, the Reds hand the ball to righty Sonny Gray (2-6, 4.50 ERA) and the Mets counter with Carlos Carrasco (no record), who will be making his season debut and long awaited Mets debut. Carrasco is finally returning after suffering a torn hamstring in March. This line opened with New York listed as a short -110 home favorite and Cincinnati a + 100 road dog. The public is split and doesn't know who to back, but pros seem to be leaning Mets as we've seen New York get steamed from -110 to -120. Non-division home favorites are 333-206 (61.8%) this season. The Mets are 32-18 at home this season, including 25-13 as a home favorite. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (35-66) at Detroit Tigers (50-55)

The Tigers took care of business in last night's series opener, beating the Orioles 6-2 as -145 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Baltimore starts veteran righty Matt Harvey (5-10, 6.65 ERA) and Detroit trots out lefty Tarik Skubal (6-9, 4.42 ERA). This line opened with the Tigers listed as a modest -130 home favorite and the Orioles a + 120 road dogs. Pros have pounced on the Tigers at home, driving Detroit up from -130 to -140. Non-division home favorites off a win have gone 194-119 (62%) this season. The Tigers are 29-22 at home. The Orioles are one of the worst road teams in MLB, going 18-35. Detroit is 9-4 as a favorite. Baltimore is 32-59 as a dog. The Orioles are just 13-23 against lefties this season. Baltimore is 18-33 as a road dog. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 10 to 9.5. 

8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (43-60) at St. Louis Cardinals (51-51)

This Interleague showdown features two teams with disappointing seasons thus far. The Twins are dead last in the AL Central while the Cardinals are 9.5-games back of the division leading Brewers in the NL Central. In tonight's series opener, the Twins give the ball to ace Jose Berrios (7-5, 3.48 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with lefty Wade LeBlanc (0-1, 3.45 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -130 road favorite and St. Louis a + 120 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the home dog Cardinals getting plus money, which has caused St. Louis to fall from + 120 to + 110. Interleague home teams with a line move in their favor have gone 72-50 (59%) this season. Home dogs in general have gone 249-294, which only translates to a 45.9% win rate but has produced roughly + 21 units won due to the plus money payouts. The Cardinals are 28-20 at home this season. The Twins are 19-30 on the road. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible drop down to 8. The under is 26-19-3 at Busch Stadium this season (57.8%). The forecast calls for high 70s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from center. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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